Lockdown And History

 

If You Don’t Learn From History YouAre Doomed To Repeat It

There’s a tenable historical thesis that the «barbarians» (not the rugby side) always win. Brute force and inferior understanding always defeat more knowledge and understanding. The «barbarians» are not necessarily malevolent, nor necessarily savage nor ill-intended, quite possible benevolent, often good nd useful citizens. But they constitute an underclass in any society, an underprivileged class, less able to reason but also the majority. Their only power is collective.

If people in general were asked about the origins of civilisation/democracy/modern society, many would opt with apparent justification for the Greeks, pre-dating the Romans, who were at the time more «barbaric» than the Greeks.And the Roman civilisation was followed by what are commonly called the Dark Ages; the «barbarians» won again. But the Greeks in turn achieved their dominance by overcoming the Phoenicians, whose knowledge and civilisation were superior at the time. So the Greeks in this case were the «barbarians», overcoming superior knowledge by brute force. We know that this has happened many times in the past because we know that great civilisations existed millennia ago but that they were somehow enfeebled and that much of their knowledge was subsequently lost. In every case the «barbarians» won.

How does this relate to current affairs? Must the periodic historical dominance of the «barbarians» continue? Or can it be countered so that society in general progresses continuously. Must society always at some time take a step back? Nowadays we are not (hopefully) talking about brute force. Brute force on a global scale now means nuclear weapons and liely the end of human civilisation as we know it. Nowadays we are talking about economic force and the «barbarian» majority. Two brute force world wars were backward steps, can economic force now gain the support of this majority in order to rule? Since reason will not do it the obvious inference surely is that this majority must be fed with emotional messages that it is receptive to, that won’t be examined by reason. The appeal has to be purely emotional. So by an appeal to emotion the «barbarians» can still apparently win and so history can repeat itself. The society concerned takes a step back. Progressive civilisation is reversed, as it apparently always has been in the past. Does this have to be the future?

Lockdown

Travel is supposed to broaden the mind and may indeed do so but that is not;necessarily the case; people can remain effectively confined in their own cultures. At the time of the EU referendum I assumed that because so many Brits took holidaysabroad, quite apart from those who worked abroad, the British would have a positive appreciation of foreign cultures. Yet xenophobia was clearly a factor in the referendum result and, anecdotally, appears to be evident in the UK today,encouraged by some popular media and even the government. So my assumptionwas wrong. Physical masks, perhaps worn reuctantly, may filter out viral droplets but virtual masks worn voluntarily can filter out anything foreign. It seems that many free people freely create their own prisons/confinement of a sort

Autumn

Autumn

Autumn has definitely settled in now, evidenced by the weather, the countryside and the clocks. We’ve had a few weeks of decent rainfall and the river Ouveze in front is now looking much less like an apology for a stream. The pots and garden have all benefited as also have I in having to water only those under the balcony. Weather at the moment is similar to classic April weather in England. There is still a fair amount of colour out front from pansies, fuchsias, busy lizzies and the argyranthemum by my front door (photo). There is colour too in the countryside, not spectacular but muted yellows, browns and greens enlivened by the occasional drift of vines turning dark red. My plants will have fewer blooms with fewer hours of sunshine as we advance towards winter but most will continue until the first severe frosts, some time in December. 

 

New COVID-related restrictions, specifically a 9.00pm to 8.00am curfew, mean that eating with friends will have to be at lunchtime for a while. I have no problem with that except that I find if I have a solid meal at lunchtime I can kiss goodbye to doing anything very active in the afternoon. France is experiencing a similar rise in infections to that in the UK and the government measures here are no more popular than they are in the UK. At least most people seem sensible in their attitude to them and at least the government here is not overtly corrupt.

Fewer daylight hours mean less outside activity but I have books and DVDs aplenty and there is a lot of football onTV to keep me happy. My attention turns particularly to cooking, especially as salads and light meals no longer seem appropriate to outside conditions. Last week I made a Provencale casserole, similar to any beef casserole but with olives and bacon included and this week I’m making a rabbit, chicken and bacon pie (with lots of sage) fromleft over bits; stews, casseroles and curries will no doubt feature throughout the coming months, as also will pies. The French don’t seem to do meat pies and I miss them. I generally cook only one main dish a week, occasionally two, as there is usually enough left over for another meal for me and then I’m invited out in return a couple of times. In between I experiment with Asian stir-fries or do something simple.

It’s mushroom season with many varieties in the shops and markets that I’ve never seen in England. Apart from the ubiquitous button mushroom there are cèpes, chanterelles, pieds de mouton, lactaires, girolles and trompettes de la mort (the last sound deadly but aren’t). I’ve included them from time to time in dishes in a minor rôle but never found any way to really do them justice other than in a risotto. I’ll have to search more recipe sites. I’ll also make some English sausages. French sasages can be very good but they are intrinsically different and I also miss English sausages. I have the skins from a local butcher and a mincer but the mincer motor is not powerful enough to force the meat mixture into the skins. So my daughter bought me a «sausage stuffer» for my birthday and now I’m ready to go.

I feel that the reduced hours of daylight together with the COVID sitution do need something to enliven them and cooking is one way I do that. Fortunately, the fish and cuts of meat I like are reasonably priced and vegetables are cheap. Let’s cook!

 

Checks And Balances

Checks And Balances

Checks and balances play a latge part in life on any scale, be it personal or national. My last post was about all that I love here and why I love being here but I have to admit that I wouldn’t have liked being here when I was in my early 20s at all. Why? Because when I was in my early 20s I thought the world was my oyster and I wanted above all to explore it, to explore all the possibilities. Here the life can be idyllic but the possibilities are very, very limited. Worse, because the possimilities are so limited, the temptation is to enjoy what is here and not seriously consider other possibilities: the death of all wider exploration and ambition. That is fine for me now but wouldn’t have been when I was much younger

How do others achieve appropraite checks and balances, suitable compromises? One way that is very evident here is that people who have grown up in the village have left to further their goals in life but returned to retire here. There are numerous cases of this that I know of. What happens to those others who remain? Essentially they seem to become artisans of one sort or another who find a consistent demand for their services or they lose their way and become, in gnereal parlance, locus eaters. On a oersonal level It’s a question of finding the appropriate checks and balances for a specific period in one’s life. On a wider national or international level……..?

Pragmatism Vs Dogma 

On a national level, a case that comes to my mind is the NHS in the UK. Dogma says it should be free at the point of delivery and not privatised, although it already significantly is. Proponents for privatisation can point to France where the French equivalent is entirely privatised in terms of delivery and superficially looks like the American system. . But……..the French equivalent is very significantly controlled by the government, which says what it will pay for any drug or treatment and reimburses a percenatge, large or small, dependent on the case; it’s called a «concention». It is not a free market, as it might appear, because any service or drug provider who steps out of the government «convention» stands to lose around 80% or more ;of its potential market, so most clinics and hospitals stay within the convention. Checks and balances, pragmatism rather than dogma. The most important question is not a dogmatic healthcare should/shouldn’t be privatised but what are the practical effects, how healthcare is made affordable in the general case.

Rain 

It rained last night, which wouldn’t be news if it weren’t that it hasn’t done so for almost ten weeks now. It didn’t rain heavily but enough for me to forgo watering today, a welcome relief. The temperature today also dropped by around 10 degrees, which meant I could comfortably play boules in the afternoon. Evenings are becoming darker sooner also, so signs of autumn approaching are all around and, frankly, welcome. There was also a large fire last night, about 8km from the village, which was not that surprising considering that the countryside around is dry as tinder. Firefighters from 60km away were called upon to join up with local forces as were 5-6 planes to drop water on the blaze. There were no causalties but around 150 hectares of farmland and woods were destroyed. My friend Steve likes to say that the temperature drops by10 degrees at the end of August, the younger tourists all leave and the wrinkly tourists arrive. That happened a couple of weeks early last year and appears to have done so this year too.

Lucky Me

Lucky Me

My son, Carl, returned to England last Friday, taking with him one of the masks provided to me by the village authorities. I have to hope he will use it and be sensible about contact in the UK. In many ways it was good having him here but 4 months is quite a long time, he doesn’t speak French, my friends are much older than him (and mostly French) and he was missing his friends in England. It has been a question of choosing an appropriate time for his return to that madhouse of a country and last Friday seemed to be it. I hope that was a good decision.

This evening, having played (and won!) three games of boules I sat out in the Cafe des Sports and thought how lucky I am to be here. The evening mercifully lowered the temperature (it has been very hot and dry here for a month now – August weather and we are not in August yet) so I had a couple of beers with friends before coming home to attack the watering necessary front and back to keep plants alive. I feel I have everything I want, everything I could reasonably ask for, here and now I also have my house back to myself. Carl did a few jobs that would have been difficult for me while he was here so the house and outside are in better shape than they would otherwise have been.

One thing that lockdown did was to focus my mind (and Carl’s then) on cooking; what else, other than gardening was there to do? Hopefully my friends invited to eat will reap the benefits. I use a lot of herbs and spices in cooking and have a herb patch outside my front door with mint, parsley, oregano, winter savory and sage in it. The parsley has run to seed but is easily obtainable all year round in shops and the same goes for the mint. But the hot weather has allowed me to dry a lot of sage and winter savory for later use. Rosemary is perennial and ubiquitous here and so are bay trees so that sees me set up for winter cooking. Fresh coriander can be a problem but Algerians and Moroccans in the markets in Buis and Vaison normally have a plentiful supply for just a few cents a bunch. Most dry spices, other than esoteric Indian and Indonesian ones, are available in both markets so I’m very adequately supplied.

Given that my life here consists mostly of socialising with friends, gardening, playing boules (and whatever else is buzzing through my puzzled mind) I think that I am very lucky. I don’t lead (can’t afford) a very luxurious life but don’t feel the need for one, love what I have and find it affordable. Lucky me.

Jasmine

Jasmine

As the lockdown eases the jasmine seems to progress. It’s all over the front of the house and covers a large part of the wall on the back terrace. The perfume is everywhere. I had thought that one of the jasmine plants in a pot on the balcony wasn’t doing much until, looking left rather than straight ahead outside my bedroom window, 

I saw it happiky climbing over the TV dish and antenna next to the roof. I had to get my son to risk life and limb climbing out of my bedroom window, three storeys up, to untangle it. The result is that neighbours have vases full of jasmine and TV coverage is secured. Carl and I have also plastered the interior of the wall fountain on the terrace at the back with mastic to repair a leak so that is another useful job done.

Thanks to the lockdown easing we were able to have a pain au chocolat and coffee on the terrace of the Bar du Pont and bask in the sun on Friday morning and now look forward to a pizza in the same place on Monday evening. Summer is coming and hopefully there are good times ahead.

Lockdown Easing

Lockdown Easing

Lockdown has been eased for just over a week now and I have to admit it has made a huge difference to my life, so I very much hope that the anticipated spike in infections is low. The gardening that I enjoy hasn’t been affected by lockdown except to the extent that my plants have probably never had more attention. However, two other pleasurable aspects of my life, boules and socialising, most certainly have and lockdown easing has made both possible again. I have had friends to eat here, have been invited by friends to eat with them and hope that that part of my life can thrive again. On all such occasions we have observed reasonable distancing and the classic French «bise» (kiss on the cheeks) has been all but outlawed. However, social intercourse is back and is a great boon. So far I have played boules only twice but the public spaces are now open and social distancing is not difficult while playing. So I look forward to more of that.

The front of the house is looking good and the climbing roses at the back are in full bloom, as also is the dwarf blue campanula that I have plugged into the terrace wall wherever I could. The balcony has been running through its repertoire of scents, startiing with the lilac briefly followed by the honeysuckle which is now just going over while the jasline has started to bloom. It makes sitting out on the balcony in the evenings a real olfactory pleasure. The weather is doing its best to get the good feelings going with plenty of sunshine and warmth and the frogs in the river are in full song.

In the shops asparagus and strawberries are in full flood, melons are plentiful and the first peaches and nectarines are beginning to appear. Cherries will be next and I will have my fruit heaven. Life feels good again.

Speculation On The Future

How To Use Up The Time: Speculation On The Future

About the only people with no spare time on their hands now are those still working, especially those working from home and simultaneously looking after small children. For the rest of us there is the small problem of how to use up the spare time. There’s obviously reading, watching films, and listening to music. F acebook offers the opportunity for challenges such as posting photos, posting favourite songs, books, memories, etc. For me, apart from the first three, the preferred past-time is writing and speculation. So I want now to speculate on the future in the UK, as I have friends and family there.

For me all the big questions are about politics, the media and how the government governs over the next 9 months. There are some inferences that can be drawn from the last 3 months, I think, but above all innumerable questions for which answers are needed. Below are thoughts on some of the major issues.

Relaxation Of Lockdown

Johnson has been correct, I think, in emphasising the dangers of relaxing lockdown too much and too soon. Nonetheless, lockdown will have to be eased at some point. The advice from WHO and just about everywhere else is that pre-requisites are a defined structure and strategy, a staged process that allows for fallback, universal testing and tracing andPPE for everyone. The UK currently falls well short on testing, tracing and PPE. The Scottish and Welsh Assemblies have produced tentative proposals for easing lockdown but the UK government currently refuses to reveal either plans or the issues and priorities being considered. Why? Will other political parties and important representative groups be allowed input into the discussions? Will the government attempt to synchronise actions in England and Northern Ireland with Scotland and Wales?

Leadership

The crisis has made it clear that whatever Johnson is he is not a leader. Leaders are pro-active, decisive, prepared to take bold measures if required and generally follow a well thought out plan. Whatever the eventual outcome of the UK strategy it has thus far been characterised by complacency, prevarication, delay, indecision and necessary measures taken too late. If anyone is leading the government at the moment it would appear to be Dominic Cummings.

Support For Commerce

All affected countries have taken measures of various sorts to support commercial enterprises, large and small. The UK’s support for small enterprises seems to have been stymied thus far by the banks, through which the support was channelled. Could this problem not have been foreseen? Just now the government has decided to pay the interest on loans for a year, a useful measure but an afterthought and an oversight.

Loans have been made to large businesses but the government declines to disclose both the amounts and the recipients. Why? Which businesses have applied and which have been refused and why?For instance, if any media groups have received loans, which ones are they? Control over media coverage of government actions seems to be high on the governnent agenda.

Denmark, Poland and France have excluded all companies based in offshore tax havens from government support. This seems reasonable; if companies avoid taxes in a country why should they get financial support from it. (Perhaps Virgin could be refunded all the UK corporation tax it has paid over the past few years). I expect some other EU countries to do the same but not the UK.

Immigration (And Racism)

There can be little doubt that immigration is a major issue in the UK or that it was a significant factor in the EU referendum result. The number of race-related assaults recorded in the two years after the referendum result reportedly rose by 20-40%, dependent on area. However the high profile of immigrant NHS and care staff in combating the virus would appear to have defused the issue considerably. The advent of plane loads of Romanians to work in UK agriculture has further served to underline the UK’s economic dependency on immigration, previously stated in various economic studies. Will the government ever be honest enough to acknowledge this?

The Future Economy

The UK economy, like those in almost all countries, is taking a huge hit from the impact of the virus. This impact is likely to be followed by another in the UK if Johnson gets the no-agreement Brexit he appears to want (every economic commentator has said Brexit will harm the UK economy). Whatever the case, it is clear that commerce will require government support for some time to come. It seems unlikely that any government can support all of commerce so the support will have to be selective; but on what basis? It would be unreasonable to ask for an answer to that question now but the eventual answer, if we are ever allowed to know it, will be very important.

Given the hit on the public purse imposed by the virus, public finances will be stretched to the limit. So what will be the response of the government to public services? The UK government’s record on this is evident: to cut expenditures to the bone. The most likely outcome in the UK must be more austerity, with the virus as the obvious excuse (conveniently hiding the impact of Brexit). The NHS could be a particular problem here, with its current high positive profile. However an ostensibly high increase in its budget, even if inadequate to compensate for the cuts over the last decade and offset by higher costs generally, should do the trick. That should also serve to excuse cuts elsewhere. If Hancock’s offer of a badge for life-risking care workers for which they had to pay is any indication of government thinking, the means to recreate the NHS as it was a decade ago won’t even be sought. A more «socialist» approach from the current government seems very unlikely.

Managing natiional econolies after the pandemic but while its effects are still evident will be a lmajor challenge for all nations and will require genius economists and sensitive politicians to resolve it if major public unrest is to be avoided. Any signs of such in the UK?

Unemployment

Unemployment numbers are a statistician’s political game; it all depends on how you want to count them. Officially in the UK they were around 4.8% before the virus crisis, which is actually close to full employment, although a calculation in the FT put the figure at probably three times higher. Whatever the case, unemployment in the UK later in the year is likely to be very high. How will the government react to this? Even the government probably doesn’t know the answer to this problem yet but, given the general economic outlook, a large pool of low paid labour is likely to persist, which bodes ill for the economy. A large pool of low-paid labour encourages inefficiency locally and uncompetitiveness internationally.

Brexit

Brexit and EU relations are a backcloth to the virus crisis. The UK government has yet to state in any credible way why help offered by the EU in the virus crisis has been ignored (as well as help from some UK companies; why?). Brexit negotiations are reportedly fraught and a no-agreement Brexit seems the most probable outcome. In the interim some notable Leave campaigners have made very significant gains from the virus crisis. Will that be a trend over the rest of the year? Pecunia non olet but it has fingerprints.

The Media

Many of the media are in acute financial difficulties, which is why it would be relevant to know if any had received government financial support. The government lap-dogs posing as journalists in the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph have simply followed the government line in their coverage of the crisis, with very minor exceptions. The Sunday Times has been provoked into a return to journalism. Genuinely independent journalism, sometimes with a slight but discernible political slant, persists in such as The Independent, the «i», the Metro, The Guardian and the Belfast Telegraph. Helpfully it also persists in coverage of the UK by some of the foreign press such as the New York Times and Washington Post.

In UK TV the BBC and ITV have at least avoided any subservience to the government and Channel 4 has shown its teeth. If these can ignore any government threats to their licences, there is hope, because the UK and its democracy badly needs independent judgements and critical appraisals. However, it also needs access to the relevant information.

Openness, Scrutiny, Accounatbility

In his first speech from Downing Street after recovering from the virus Johnson made a pledge to openness and scrutiny. I think this is key to any democracy. However, if Johnson’s recovery from illness has not been an epiphany moment then this is simply a government ploy, much loved by masters of deception (dare I mention Goebbels?). Claim to do what others are criticising you for not doing but deliver only anodyne information, the trappings not the substance.

Before the virus crisis Johnson was being pressured to publish the report on Russian interference in the UK EU referendum which might, some claimed, contain information that would invalidate the referendum result. It would be easy to prove or disprove the claim, so why not publish the report? That, obviously, is very much on the back-burner now, although it would take only a minute to give the go-ahead to publish.

Before the crisis the government sought to exclude critical journalists from government briefings and has now reportedly barred Sunday Times journalists from asking questions at them. The government also threatened the licences of the BBC and Channel 4 for criticism of its policies. One of the first laws the government passed was to prevent Parliamentary scrutiny of trade deals. Why? Since then Johnson has lied over meeting corona virus patients, the government has lied over the provision of PPE and lied over testing. After any national crisis it is normal to have an independent enquiry into what happened yet the government refuses to commit to one. Why? A dependent enquiry maybe…….? If the government really does commit to openness it will truly have been an epiphany moment. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. There are many questions in this posting; the proof will be if we get answers to them.

Labour's Big Challenge

Labour Leader’s Big Challenge

It strijes me that one of the first priorities in Sir Keir Starmer’s agenda as leader of the Labour Party needs to be a skilled manager of communications. Whatever messages Starmer wants to deliver are going to have to get round the right-wing press, which most of the British public reads, and which can be expected to ignore or distort them. TV news channels will be very important since they can hardly ignore what he, as leader of the Oppositon, says.

It may of course be that some of the right-wing press folds in the economic crisis; it is certainly in danger, as are all newspapers. On the other hand it may be being subsidised by the government to stay afloat. We can’t know whether that is true since the government refuses to say to whom the large grants it is offering are going. That is just the normal government avoidance of scrutiny. However, it would hardly be surprising if Rupert Murdoch’s empire were a beneficiary. Time will tell, if we are ever allowed to know, which we may not be.

I think that Starmer’s sommunications manager’s first priority should be to expose the misinformation in the right-wing press, peferrably on TV news channels. The prime goal must be to make people distrust and question what they read. That can be applied to any publication; they can stand by what they print, or decide not to print, or not. Unforrtunately for the Labour party it doesn’t have a number of lage-circulation press lap dogs so it will be fighting against considerable odds; that is just reality. If all shadow ministers are instructed to expose misinformation (and blatant lies) whenever they occur the campaign could yet succeed. Internet news providers are more various and so the communications battle there is more even but it wouldn’t hurt here again to ensure that misinformation and lies are exposed as such. It shouldn’t be too difficult to expose pro-government postings from people who don’t exist.

I think this campaign should start immediately. It can’t be long before the right-wing press start attacking Starmer so why not take the initiative? Hopefully, the British public haven’t swallowed so much misinformtion and so many lies that they don’t even notice them.

The Virus War Versus WW2

War On The Virus Versus WW2

It’s been said that we are at war with the virus so I‘ve been playing around wirth the idea of an anology between that and WW2, to see how far the similarities go. Probably too much time on my hands but…...…………….

The lead up to and early days of WW2 were characterised by delay, indecision, unpreparedness and no little incompetence. Forewarning? There were plenty of warning voices in the UK from 1936 onwards and a report recently released shows that the current government knew in 2017, through Exercise Cygnus; it would be unprepared for a future virus. SARS a dozen years ago demonstrated the threat yet the government continued to make cuts to the NHS. An emergency load on medical services occurs in both cases so the analogy holds in all these aspects.

Leadership? Johnson versus Chamberlain? There’s little correspondence other than the indecision and lack of preparedness. Johnson would doubtless like to cast himself in the rôle of Churchill but there’s little correspondence there either. In WW2 we had a coalition cabinet to bring the country together. Now? Dream on. There’s no conscription now but why should there be? There’s no obvious reason but the government has the power to order it if manpower is short and critically needed for whatever. However there has been a successful call for volunteers and the army has been called in in both cases, obviously in the former.

Bomb shelters? Those are now people’s houses. Food shortages in both cases, caused by German U-boats formerly and self-imposed by greedy shoppers now. Air raid wardens? Those are now the police or drones.

Truth in the media as the first casualty of war/ Truth in the mdeia was already a casualty before the current crisis started but is certainly a casualty in both cases.

Isolation? Britain was not alone in 1939, as some like to suggest, unless you discount Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and an empire that covered a quarter of the globe. It need not be alone now but appears to want to be, refusing to join in cooperative initiatives in Europe. Lock-down/up? In the current case it is jock-down; in the former quite a lot, mostly toffs, were locked up.

There is one aspect in which the analogy does not hold up at all. It would be important, when WW2 ended, to evaluate the state of the economy and repair it; but nobody paid any attention to that during the war, the all-important goal was to win it. In this virus war, the goal of winning seems somewhat tempered by considerations of the economy in government pronouncements. After WW2 the UK had the most radical socialist government it has ever had, one which spawned the NHS. Does that come into the analogy?

Key moments? It’s probably too early for those in the current case but an El Alamein moment could be round the corner. A new general and far superior resources? If only…………….

Commentary

I passed this analogy analogy through my son and he made two comments I thought interesting. One was with respect to unpreparedness and forewarnings and the other with respect to how similar communities were then and now.

Thz first comment was words to the effect of “how much of what followed could have been known without hindsight?”. It’s a good question with a simple but simplistic answer: nothing. Nobody can be certain they know anything about future events. Indeed, a good way to inhibit any discussion of the future is to counter any assertion with “but you can’t be certain”. Another oft-discussed imponderable, motivation, can be treated in the same way. And yet intelligent people continue to discuss both. There are many situations, particularly in a war, when it makes sense, indeed can even be imperative, to put together all the known information and assess the probability of future events. Much the same goes for motivation. The important point here is to look at all the information, not just at isolated events. There is considerable documentary evidence that many people in Germany in the 1930s were uneasy at what Hitler was doing but found convenient reasons to excuse individual events. Nobody wants to forecast doom and few wanted to try to create a picture on a canvas of all the events. That was so then and seems so today. I think it very likely that this natural reaction contributed to Britain’s unpreparedness in 1939 but have no idea if, ot to what extent; it has shaped unpreparedness for the virus war. Nobody could know for certain that a new vrus would appear but the possibility was assessed and it was apparently decided neither to take action nor to hedge bets. Should bets have been hedged? That will be a matter of opinion.

My son’s second comment, on similarities or otherwise between communities now and then is also obviously relevant. Differences in life-style abound but but can probably mostly be set aside for the purposes of this exercise. Two pertinent key differences stand out to me: political divisions and closeness within neighbourhoods.

In the 1930s Britain was quite divided politically. The decade had started with a coalition government which was replaced by a Conservative government and the Communist party and the Fascist parties were stronger than at any time before or after. The primary causes of these divisions were the economic depression and attitudes towards Hitler. In the lead up to the virus war Britain had around 4 million worhers earning below the living wage and was split in two over attitudes to Europe. Soon after the outbreak of WW2 a coalition government was formed which helped to unite the country and ensure all were pulling in the same direction. In the virus war, there has been no similar rapprochement.

The difference in communities that strikes me is again essentially one of rapprochement and also of local support. Extended families tended to live very much closer then and neighbourhoods tended to be much closer knit, partly perhaps because far fewer women had salaried work. An important result of this was that there was effectively a strong social support network in most neighbourhoods. There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence for the strength of community spirit then. By the advent of the 21^st century most of the basis for this had disappeared as extended families scattered around the globe and more people travelled further to work. In the virus war, panic buying in UK supermarkets is evidence of the absence of community spirit. Mmany philanthropic people are trying to put together local support groups to fill this gap but a significant difference in the strength of local support seems likely to remain. Certainly there seems little very evidence of any general communal spirit of togetherness.

A final point, a question that children will ask in the future. What did you do in the virus war, mummy/daddy?

Lock-down

Lock-down

It’s the third day of lock-down here and everybody seems to be taking it quite calmly, even cheerfully. The pity is that it would be a beautiful day to be out and about, sunny and warm ; but that is not permitted. I have to content myself with reading on my balcony or pottering in my back gardeh. I went shopping this morning and had to tick and sign an «assertation» before going. The «assertation» is a form showing tick boxes for the legitimate reasons to be out of your house, one of which you have to tick befiore you sign and date the form. Legitimate reasons are going to work, shopping for food or medicines, going to doctors or hospitals, looking after dependent people or, briefly and locally, walking a dog or getting a little exercise. You incur a significant fine if the police catch you outside without one and the police are making a show of presence.

There weren’t many people in the shops but neither were the shops conspicuously deserted. A few of the shoppers were were wearing face masks and there were barriers or lines drawn on the ground to keep shoppers from getting too close to the cashiers. Some people have obviously been stocking up a little but there is no sign of the panic buying that has apparently been going on in the UK. There was quite enough of all the usual produce on the shelves. So life is restricted but far from unbearably so and it seems only common sense to respect the restrictions.

The UK is not yet under lock-down and I have been wondering how it would work there if imposed. There is little reason why it shouldn’t work as it does here although common sense seems to be in as short supply as toilet rolls there, similarly police presence. There is also little reason why, if and when the UK goes under lock-down, it shouldn’t impose similar restrictions to those here but I find it difficult to imagine how they could be effectively policed, so their success or failure will depend on that far from common sense, unfortunately.

I've read, incidentally, that the EU is stockpiling ventilators to be sent to any member counytry when the country experiences peak infection. Although the UK is nolonger a member of the EU the EU has geberously included the UK in this scheme. I doubt that that has been reported in The Telegraph or the rest of the right-wing press in the UK.

There have been cuts to public services here but nothing like on the scale of those in the UK. The cuts in the UK have made savings, for some, but I think the UK is about to find out the costs in terms of peoples’ lives of those savings. A Conservatives MP has been reported saying that the government will end up having to implement Corbyn’s election manifesto. If so, so much the better for the UK.

While The British Doze......zzzzz.......

While The British Doze…..zzzz….

The government lies. Seemingly compulsively. Boris Johnson lied when he said he has made parking free for everyone at hospitals. Actually that is not even nearly everyone. Only some hospital staff, parents staying the night with chikldren in hospital aand handicapped blue-badge holders can park for free. Boris johnson lied when he said that he went to Kettering hospital and met corona virus patients;Kettering hospital has confirmed it has none. Minister Matt Hancock lied when he said the government was working closely with supermarkets to ensure supplies in case of a corona virus epidemic; the supermarkets deny any knowledge of this. So what’s the problem (other than the government’s compulsive lying)?

The underlying problem is that none of these lies are challenged in most of the press, the right--wing press. So the government can tell as many lies as it likes, confident that they won’t be challenged in the press that most of the nation reads. So the British doze…….They have already bought the biggest lie of all, Brexit, so maybe they have become immune to lies and can’t see them.

Is this healthy and, if not, what will it take for the British to wake up? The recent floods might have provided a wake-up call but seem only to have aroused some mumblings at Johnson not going to witness them. The spread of the corona virus could provide another or, as Rees-Mogg’s father has suggested, simply provide another business opportunity to be exploited. On the evidence of the government thus far, lies will simply be used to explain away any inconvenience. The cost of Brexit thus far, some £4.4 billion in readies and £1000 billion in outfliow of investment according to the FT, doesn’t seem to have done the job either. So wh at will it take?

The British are said to be a stoic forbearing lot, slow to stir, and so it seems. But thay are also said to be fierce when provoked. I can only hope that as Brexit unfolds the necessary provocation will occur and the British will wake from their slumber.

The Current State Of Play

The Current State Of Play

On the 1st of February the UK had just left the EU and I got an early morning phone call from the Mairie informing me politely that I no longer had a right to vote in the forthcoming local elections. I had to receive a letter formally informing me of this apparaently and as i declined to go to the Mairie to colect it it duly arrived in the post next day. The mayor has been apologetic to the few Brits around about this necessity, recognising what we add to village life.

I’m seeing increasing numbers of postings on the Internet of people who had voted Leave and are now regretting it as the unicorns start disappearing and reality bites. It tkes coueage to admit you were duped or that you misunderstood even such complicated concepts as sovereignty. The difference between the two is important. Because if misunderstanding is the problem anyone could be to blame and any old scapegoat will do. But if people have been duped then they will, or should, become angry and that is what is necessary.

Perhaps our mayor’s stance is why my long-standing request to the Mairie to prune the trees across the road in front of my house finally bore fruit. Barriers were erected around the trees, the woodsmen arrived and I now have the prospect of a lot more sunlight on the friont of my house this summer. The problem has been that the trees threw shadow over the house which, while providing relief from the summer heat, inhibited the flower display. So I’m looking forward to every plant flowering to its fullest over the coming months.

Every year since I have been here we have had one day of snow, except this year, until today. Today we had a snow flurry for about an hour in the morning. The snow didn’t settle and that may be it for the year but there could be some more to come over the next few days. The snow was a surprise considering that we had been lunching in the sun in a temperature of 18 degrees less than a week ago.

My son, Carl, is with me at the moment and undertook to climb the Via Ferrata in Buis. The photos here are of him climbing the St Julien rock face. I’m proud of his having done that; I’m not sure I could ghave done that even had I been more physically able than I am now. Good for him.

Carl has also helped me get my back garden being in some sort of order. The arch holding the climbing roses had collapsed and that is now fixed thanks to some muscle putting in two metal stakes to reassert the arch. The next job is to sort the leaning column that supports a honeysuckle and another climbing rose. I’m now confident that that can be fixed too.

The First British Reich

Towards The First British Reich: Doninic Cummings’ Challenges

Creating what is essentially a dictatorship in a country with a long democratic tradition is no small task. Of course, an overt dictatorship would never be accepted, at least in the short to medium term. What is needed is a guarantee of continuous leadership in a single direction, achieved by democratic means. That, of couse, doesn’t count technically as a dictatorship but the difference is small.

So how can that be achieved? The first obvious requirement is a continued mass loyal vote to ensure a majority in Parliament. Manipulation of the public, particularly the «lumpenproletariat», can go a long way to achieving this. Our first past the ost system means that we don’t need that large a majority vote (or necessarily even one at all) to get a good majority of MPs in Parliament. Constituency boundaries can be adjusted if need be. But some democratic obstacles will have to be weakened or removed also. Let’s have a look at those.

Journalistic freedom could be a problem theoretically but hasn’t proved much of one in practice: Weakening it should be sufficient if we keep the main newspaper proprietors sweet. Admittedly, the first attempt at knocking uncooperative journalists didn’t go well but that was just a first attempt. Next time our friendly newspaper prorietors will have to be better briefed to send along only journalists who can be relied upon not to walk out. A threat of the sack would probably do it.

Then there is the Internet. We can’t control it (at the moment) but it can be a very useful tool as well as a bit of a problem and, with friend Trump in charge in the USA, we can feel secure that no impediments will be imposed on the main Internet players to curtail access to the data we want. That can be left alone for the moment.

Broadcast media, radio and TV, could pose problems but their need for a licence is a boon here. We can control who gets licences and, if threats aren’t enough, making an example of one or two should do the trick.

Then there’s Parliament itself. Keeping a big majority will be important of course but the National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee will have to be kept under control. That will need a bit of thought. The Office for National Statistics shouldn’t be a problem. We’ve cut their budget and a little more direction on what statistics to collect (and how) should prevent any embarassing numbers coming to light.

There is always the question of human rights but being able to draw up our own Human Rights Act will help a lot, particularly if threats of terrorism can be played up in the popular media when the Bill is made public. It should allow us to cater for any high-profile trouble-makers.

Keeping the lumpenproletariat happy will be a challenge but our friendly popular newspapers xhould be a big help there. We’ve already provided some «sweeties»: increasing the minimum wage and upping the lowest tax threshold were good moves and will be taken as a show of loyalty to the masses and the budgetary effect is minimal. Some other moves, like keeping excise duty on beer and cider constant while increasing that on wines and spirits, can be introduced along the way. The popular newspapers can be relied upon to play on loyalty to Queen and country. The royal family is in a bit of difficulty at the moment but fortunately Harry and Megan have removed themselves from the scene and the Queen can be relied upon as a rallying point. If times get really hard for the masses our English constitution should help.

The beauty of the English constitution is that it is incomplete, unwritten and relies in some important places on gentlemen’s agreements. I don’t think we need to worry about gentlemen getting in the way. We’ve adjusted the relationship between Parliament and the Courts so the latter can’t get in the way either. There’s always been this separation of the police and the military in England but, if things get too bad, we could always call in the military. We could claim a threat of terrorism and northern Ireland would be a precedent for that.

The threat of terrorism has mileage in it but we do need a common enemy for more routine matters as well. The EU should suffice for the next couple of years at least. It’s proved very useful that way already so people will be receptive. We can blame failure to reach agreement on it when we leave the EU without a deal and then any negative consequences afterwards on the same: their refual to negotiate on our terms. When that gives out we could turn to foreigners generally or the mslims again. We’ll think of something.

So far, we’look to be in good shape towards getting our democratic dictatorship. Forward to the first English Reich! (But of couse this couldn’t happen in Britain could it. Didn’t Britain fight a war to stop that?)

For more on this see the link below

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/johnson-leading-revolution-and-time-its-coming-right?fbclid=IwAR2NZ-79uW5xe8oUdZdDZ6F1XL9-ZCMBmJLmzTcHZaS79y-tjMyCcZXRFZo

Chance Or A (Cunning) Plan?

Chance Or A (Cunning) Plan?

The UK is entering into a year-long period of uncertainty in which, probably, planning and chance will both play some rôle. What rôle may each play?

All we can start with is what is already known and Descartes; doubt everything. (Dubito, ergo cogito, ergo sum). Johnson has said he will be going into negotiations with the EU without compromise on what he wants. The EU won’t, cannot, compromise on the fundamentals that bind the EU countries together. What is the most likely outcome? It has to be that the UK leaves the EU without an agreement. This is the more likely in that it appeared to be the preferred arrangement of Johnson before he became PM. So let’s bring in Descartes. Johnson has falked of great opportunities, benefits and friendship to all nations although it appears that no one can give even one concrete example of either of the former. Friendship between nations must be welcomed but is meaningless without context. Descartes can have a field day; everything has to be in doubt.

So, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal will that be chance or might it be a (cunning) plan? It can’t be pure chance because there will have been chances to do a deal. So, if no deal happens, it might be a plan. What then could the plan be?

There seems at the moment an unlikely alliance between a right-wing government and the least educated and most numerous part of the population. This situation is almost without precedent in the last century except in dictatorships and the UK is not a dictatatorship. So js this a matter of pure chance? It does not look like it, given that almost all of the most read popular press, owned by proprietors with clear political objectives, has for several years been been supporting the government in anti-EU sentiment. Get the less-educated and majority readers of the popular press on your side and you have a potential election majority.

So it looks like we have a plan. So, what is the plan? The grand plan, assuming there is one, has to be a matter of conjecture but the means needed to underpin it are clear. The less educated and less well informed majority has to be kept that way and fed something to keep them happy. Any means of enlightenment must be reduced or suppressed and some «sweeties» must be offered.

Is there any evidence for this? Well, the minimum earning wage has been upgraded slightly and os has the lower threshold at which income tax has to be paid. The combined result is that a low-paid worker will be around £200 a year better off. Sweeties? It’s hardly revolutionary.

What about keeping people less informed? Johnson has threatened to take away the licence of the most independent TV news channel, Channel 4, has passed a Parliamentary Act to prevent Parliament scrutinising trade deals, has done similarly to remove the Courts’ right to pronouce on the legality of government actions and, most recently, tried to divide the press by proposing that only pro-government media will be briefed on government plans. The UK is not a dictatorship and hopefully will never become one but these are all classic moves in that direction. This is not to suggest that the Uk is in danger of becoming a dictatrship but these easures ensure that even those seeking good information will have more difficulty finding it and the less well- informed will stay that way. They increase government control of what the populace can know.

Despite supposed uncretainty, I think that at this point chance can largely be discounted. There must be a plan and, whatever it is, the government is positioning itself to deliver it with the minimum of critical scrutiny and a majority of popular suuport, even if it is against the interests of that majotity. And that, I think, is what will most probably happen.

Food For Thought

Food For Thought

On Friday I invited friends for a Burns night, a day early but what the hell. I had brought back two haggis from my trip to Scotland last Ocotober and informed my French friends of what goes into a haggis so they arrived with some trepidation. As we sat having a drink before the meal I also handed them the first three verses of Burns’ poem to the haggis, in Scots of course. The result was a great evening. We started with some Scottish smoked salmon, I’d bought a bottle of Laphroaig to go with the haggis and friend Jo had made a banoffee pie and sticky toffee pudding for dessert so it was a real Scottish meal.. It was the first time my French friends had eaten haggis and poured scotch on their food and, somewhat to their surpise, they loved it. We all laughed at their attempts to understand the Burns poem.

On Sunday I went to the annual old Foggie’s free lunch laid on by the village and served by the mayor and members of the vilage council. The meal is for anyone over the age of 65 living in the village and is to thank those people for past or current services rendered to the village. The food, as usual, was excellent. Some foie gras and tapenade amuse-bouches were followed by scallops in a cream sauce, red snapper, chicken in a mushroom sauce, cheese and a chocolate pudding, all washed down with copious wine. It was yet another great meal. Lucky me.

A report in a British newspaper I read on the internet earlier in the week provided some stark perspective. The report was of a disabled man aged 57 who had starved to death after the Department of Work and Pensions had erroneaously stopped his benefit payments.

Life Goes On

Life Goes On

My festive season here was quiet but enjoyable. I spent Christmas day with friends at their house and had friends here with me on Boxing day, eating drinking and chatting. I did nothing on new year’s eve but went to more friends on new year’s day. I find that staying up past mydnight to welcome in the new ytear has little appeal for me now. The one (relatively) recent year when I really took an interest was in 2000 when TV followed the arrival of the new century throughout the world. The village mayor has an aperitif gathering organised for next Friday at which he will summarise what the village council has been doing during the last year and what it proposes to do in the forthcoming year (and that had better include pruning the trees in front of my house, or else!) and there will be the annual old fogies’ lunch at the end of the week after. That will be it as far as festivities go until Easter.

The weather has been milder than usual and we are having a quite long spell of daytime sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the mid-teens, which has been good for playing boules. This spell was preceded by very heavy rain resulting in the Ouvèze stretching fully across the river bed, some 50 yards, in front of my house and the road in front becomig a shallow stream. There was no flooding locally though. Every year since I have been here we have had one day of snow but not this year sio far. Despite the relatively warm spell plants show little sign of precocius growth. Maybe more will survive the winter though than is usually the case.

In the meantime I have been busy trying to provide the French authorities with all the documents they need for a carte de séjour and French nationality. The latter is now on hold, unless I hear otherwise, until 2021 but I shall need a carte de séjour a lot sooner. It would help if the various offices involved could agree amongst themselves as to exactly what is needed.

One of my fears for Britain post-Brexit is the plight of the underpaid, those on minimum wages or, Heaven help them, no-hours contracts. The latter should clearly be illegal, as they are in the rest of Europe. These fears, for the people, were only reinforced by watching the film I, Daniel Blake.There are apparently around three million people earning the minium wgae who can have no hope of providing for their old age and will therefore be destitute when that time arrives. What then? It looks to me like a future without the empire but with Dickens. Moreover, it is actually bad economically for Britain. Companies experiencing increased demand will simply add low-cost labour. The Scandibavian countries have amply demonstrated that high wages and social charges force companies to seek means of increasing productivity by investing in automation, plant or new techniques. That gives them a medium to long-term competitive advantage. Productivity increases in the UK have remained at zero for the past ten years (OECD figues) and look likely to stay that way. That is a grim outlook for the UK and a lot of its people, apart of course from the already rich.