Brexit: Xenophobia Loses

Brexit: Either Way, Xenophobia Loses

“Brexit means Brexit”, the UK's next prime minister, Theresa May, has said. She has to be believed because even if she calls a general election, as seems likely, she would be favourite to win it. The open question still is what kind of trade agreement she can negotiate with the EU.

I've been puzzling over what possible solution there can be to what seems to me an unresolvable conflict. The UK undoubtedly voted for close control of its borders; warnings of severe economic problems must have been dismissed as scaremongering by Leave voters and yet the adverse effects can already be seen and more are certain to come. Optimists may see the hits on the value of the pound and the stock markets as temporary setbacks but the right to service euro currency transactions has already been taken from the City and, just the other day, the Lush cosmetics company, which employs 1400 staff in the UK, announced an end to UK recruitment and that it was moving its main operation to Germany. There can only be more of that to come as as other companies that have their centre for European operations in the UK do the same; commercially it's the only move that makes sense.

So the UK urgently needs a good trade agreement with the EU but…………..every other trade agreement the EU has with non-European governments includes clauses that enforce open borders and acceptance of EU legislation as regards trade. Angela Merkel herself has said that that position cannot be compromised. So Theresa May has the following dilemma to resolve. Negotiate a good trade agreement and antagonise all those who voted for close border control or ditch a trade agreement and condemn the UK to an economic recession that could last decades. How can that possibly be resolved?

Either of those solutions can only split even further a country already in conflict wth itself. I've been able to think of only one possible fudge, just possible because all politicians love fudges that get them out of a hole and can be interpreted as triumphs or disasters (“those two impostors”, Kipling) at will. The EU itself could bail the UK out, even if it doesn't feel like doing so. The idea of immigration quotas has already been discussed within the EU with respect to settlement of Syrian refugees and immigration control is an urgent issue within all EU countries. So suppose the EU sticks with its open borders policy (it can't realistically do anythng else) but allows quotas to be set on the number of immigrants allowed per year, as a sop to cool down the immigration debate within the EU? I've no real idea what the numbers would be but they would have to be in the hundreds of thousands for a country such as the UK. Theresa May could then negotiate a quota as part of a trade agreement and claim she had got back control of the UK's borders: a total fudge of course but that's politics and I can't see any other way out.

So the UK will have had it's triumph of jingoism over serious thought and its tantrum over the EU but, as ever, reality strikes back. Xenophobia cannot win because the UK can't afford it.

Post Brexit And Play

The Importance Of Play

There's something about the French that I've been struggling to put into word for years, such as why I enjoy village festivities and the social life here so much: some core characteristic that appeals to me. The answer came to me when I was shaving a few mornings ago. (It's surprising how many insights come when one is shaving, having a bath or shower or sitting on the loo, maybe because the brain then needs something to occupy it. I think it is quite a common experience.) Anyway, I remembered reading a travel article years ago about some French resort in which the author wrote: “The French at play are a heart-warming sight; the French know how to play”.

That is key for me. The same may be true of some other cultures (the Balinese come to mind) and the reason I find it a key characteristic is that I am British and we Brits are not that good at play. Maybe it is our Calvinistic heritage that inhibits us but inhibited we certainly are. At play we tend to be self-conscious, awkward and slightly embarassed. In order to play whole-heartedly we feel the need first to shed these inhibitions, which is probably why Brits on holiday so often get drunk and unpleasant.

A S Neill, progenitor of Summerhill school, always insisted on the fundamental importance of play, saying that it was not the opposite of time at school spent learning but, indeed, key to learning, to learning how to become a social animal in a democratic society. Paradoxically, it was the British Victorians who first thought of the usefulness of play in school time and brought it into school time-tables in the form sport. But they regarded it as a character-forming exercise of another sort, instilling discipline, courage, endeavour, etc, following rules rather than eschewing them: a very Calvinistic form of play. Neill's version of play was the diametric opposite.

Anyway, for me, the French have the answer, a form of play that is uninhibited but neither hedonistic nor alcohol-fuelled and out of control. That is what I enjoy.

Post Brexit

I am very reluctantly coming to accept that the Brexit decision will most probably be final and I detect that many other commentators with similar preferences are coming to the same conclusion. Speculating on outcomes (sic) will be the big media game over the next few months so here is my first cut at it. (It's raining and there is no football on TV this afternoon so I'm in writing mode.)

My objective reasons for wanting Remain to win (excluding personal convenience) were partly adherence to the ideal of a united Europe with Britain in it, albeit a Europe of a somewhat different sort to that sought by the Commission, and partly economic; I believed, and still do, that the UK economy would be far stronger within the EU than outside it. There is also a side-effect which I very much hope is unwanted by all but a tiny minority, so let's deal with that first.

The side-effect is racism. A minority (very small, I frevently hope) in the UK have taken the Brexit result to mean it's open house on race hatred. A 57% increase in race-related crime has been reported over the last 10 days. This may be short-lived but will only be so if the authorities crack down exceedingly hard on it. Will they or will xenophobia rule? If the latter is the case, I shan't want to know the UK any more.

The united Europe ideal still holds for me even without the UK so I hope the EU doesn't disintegrate. I never bought the idea that the EU stopped war in Europe. After World War 2 no country in Europe was in a state to declare war on another and, indeed, there was a considerable incentive to present a united front against Russia. Also, the EU did and could do nothing about the subsequent war in the Balkans, which happen to be in Europe. I do believe, though, that the EU has helped provide a solid platform for peace and does so also for close cooperation between countries on numerous fronts. All that can only be good.

However, if the EU is to hold together there will have to be important reforms. In particular, it has to get a grip on immigration. There is too much discontent in the remaining 27 countries to avoid disintegration without reform. Leaving the euro aside, although that will have to be reformed too, I expect far more input from elected representatives one way or another and a curbing of the powers of the Commission. The dreamers can dream on but will be called to account by European electorates. An obvious and fairly painless reform is to allow all EU countries the kind of opt out clauses the UK has and probably some more, bringing about a kind of mixed-speed Europe. Integration would be piecemeal, varying on different matters from country to country.

In the near future, for the UK certainly, for the EU probably and maybe globally there will be an economic downturn. That's easy to say as it is already happening. The question for the UK is how deep and for how long the recession will go. I don't expect dramatic economic consequences yet but I do expect a continuous weakening of the UK economy, in particular if the government sticks on wanting tight border controls. That would be a double whammy. The World Bank, etc, have already stated reduced immigrant input as one reason for downgrading the UK's economic status and lack of a trade agreement with the EU would certainly be another.  I expect a large number of jobs to be lost over time as business centres gradually move out of the UK and fewer new jobs to be created. That must mean less public spending and higher taxes, as George Osborne has already pointed out, to make up the deficit. It's surely a survivable but not a rosy prospect. The UK could and probably would join EFTA (European Free Trade Association), comprising the European countries outside the EU but that is hardly an economic group of any importance. If (there are going to be lots of “ifs” over the next few months) Denmark and Sweden also get pissed off with the EU, opt out and join EFTA, then that would be better, although the EU will certainly take steps to counter this. So the economic situation is survivable but still not rosy.

The immigration issue is key. Get that wrong and not just the UK but the whole of Europe could be in for a long hard winter.

That is my initial reading of the likely outcome of Brexit. It would be helped if we had any politicians of staure to get us through the mess but, currently, the UK is a would-be great nation led by political pygmies with only more pygmies to replace them.

The Importance Of Dubito

The Importance Of Dubito (I Doubt)

Everyone, at least everyone who's been through a sixth-form school programme, knows or should know the French philosopher Descartes' famous proposition “I think therefore I am” (“cogito ergo sum” if you are OK with the Latin). In fact that is not logically complete as a proposition, but never mind that; what is important is that it is not the entirety of what Descartes said. His full proposition was “dubito ergo cogito ergo sum”, “I doubt therefore I think therefore I am”. What's so important? That the first step is to doubt, question.

Why is this relevant now? Because, like it or not, we Brits are engaged now, and will be for some months at least ahead of us, in a propaganda war about Brexit. What is acknowledged as the first casualty in any war, particularly a propaganda one? The truth. So what should we do? We need our “dubito”; whatever we think we read, hear, see, from any source, we need to doubt, to question it. Sorry about that but we are going to have to think, and think hard, for ourselves.

The point occurred to me because I came across a story in one of the tabloids about a Romanian refugee family in London, beggars all, living under some road bridge and swigging vodka (vodka ice, to be precise). The established facts are that the peasant family came to England expecting a land of milk and honey, found that was very far from the case and want to go back but can't afford the fare. So what's the newspaper story? The story offered is that here's a family of Romanian immigrants, in London because of the EU open borders policy, making a living through begging and doing well enough to be able to afford vodka (ice); i.e. not just managing to feed their kids and get by on crusts of bread. The story struck me because I immediately thought of an alternative version.

I've no idea whether this is true but it fits the known facts equally well. The Editor of a tabloid with an agenda of immigrant bashing needs another headline story. The existence of the Romanian family under the road bridge has already been reported and is known. So he says to one of his reporters: “Go find this family, buy a bottle of vodka (ice), and give it to them. You can say 'Welcome to England' or whatever to explain the gift. Get them drinking it and take a photo and, bingo, I've got my headline story.”

As I've said, I've no idea whether this is the true story but it could as well be as the published story. So what do we conclude? We can only conclude, if we are thinking straight, that we don't really know. We don't know the truth because that's not what the newspaper considers relevant here; as I've said, that's the first casualty in our propaganda war. That's not very helpful but it does suggest a way forward. The first thing to ask in this propaganda war is what is the political agenda of the newspaper, TV station or whatever reporting the story. Because you can bet there is a slant on it, maybe even a total fabrication, and the slant will be in favour of their political agenda. Allow for that and ask yourself what facts, if any, can be established and what other possible explanations/interpretations of the story there could be. That's all you can do but, above all, do not simply accept what you read or hear as fact from any source without questioning it.

Remember……..dubito, dubito, dubito. And THINK.

More Reflection

More Reflection

I have been angry about the referendum result but I am now finding the situation more and more hilarious. Is it possible, just possible, that Lewis Carroll had a premonition about Brexit when he wrote Alice In Wonderland, but decided to tone down the fantasy a bit? Curioser and curioser doesn't come close to getting it.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has just announced that there will inevitably have to be higher taxes and public spending cuts (more than those already planned, that is). Never mind what happened to that chimerical £350 million, he was quite definite, even a little smug about it. Has any Chancellor, ever in history before, anywhere in the world in a democrary, announced both increased taxes and spending cuts at the same time, being definite about it (and possibly a little smug)? I think we have a world first record there. What's more, this was voted for by the electorate; surely another history-making world first. If Leave voters weren't quite sure what they were voting for when they voted, they do now.

It doesn't stop there, not by any means. It turns out that the areas that voted Leave most solidly are those most dependent economically on the EU. In effect, voters voted solidly for job losses. In France, Francois Hollande must be green with envy and tearing his hair (not that we Brits would mind that, of course). What wouldn't he give for a majority who would vote for job losses (and higher taxes and public spending cuts)! He's facing strikes and outright rebellion when he tries to tinker even mildly with the labout laws. I think we're going to need extra security around abattoirs come December to deal with hordes of turkeys beating on the gates and demanding to have their heads cut off for Christmas.

Don't go away yet; I haven't finished. I think we can reasonably guess that many of the Leave voters may feel they have been conned. There is to be new government leadership shortly; guess who the candidates will be? Who else can it be but the conmen? The UK being a democracy, there will be a vote at some stage and the conned electorate will be invited to vote for the conmen. You couldn't make it up!

As a very minor footnote I played boules this afternoon and was ribbed by my French friends about the England vs Iceland football debacle. I tried to persuade them that England had lost deliberately, to make the next round easier for our French friends. They didn't believe me. I don't know why; I'm sure I would have been believed in England.

Reflection

Time For Reflection

David Cameron's refusal to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Rome has allowed time for reflection. Some EU leaders are calling for immediate negotiations but they are powerless to impose them. Yes, the UK does still have a good measure of independence. So, let's reflect.

It is becoming clearer by the day that the UK is now in some form of cloud cuckoo land. Nobody has any clear idea about what may happen in the near future; anyone can make claims and predictions and no one can refute them because there is little or no hard information to back any of them. We really are in uncharted waters; so let's have a look at how we got there and what little we do know from the sketchy outline charts that we have.

The EU referendum was promised by David Cameron before the last general election as a sop to the right-wing of his party and to appeal to the populist vote. How ironic then that populism is exactly what has caused his resignation. What happened in the run up to the referendum can be summed up by paraphrasing Winston Churchill: never before was so much done by so few to misinform so many. The touted savings on leaving the EU, the trumpeted £350 million per week paid to the EU (it's actually £163 million nett, but never mind the odd £100 million) is now conveniently being disowned by Nigel Farage and never was going to be a total saving anyway. The absolute conflict between control of borders and a trade agreement with the EU, which now splits the MPs in favour of leaving the EU completely in two (half want border control, half want a trade agreement), was never explained to the electorate. Allow free movement of labour or 40% of your exports face tariff barriers. It's as simple as that; the rules of the common market (unique market, actually, is its official name) state that. If a Labour party leader such as Corbyn had blythly stated he would spend an extra £350 million on the NHS with no hard evidence to back it, who would have believed him, who would not have asked where the money would come from? What happened to people's brains? How did all this go unexplained?

Well, few ever took the possibility of a vote for exit seriously. Most of Europe certainly didn't; they thought it was a peculiarly British side-show for peculiarly British reasons. It turns out that many voters in the UK who voted Leave took the same view; their cries of anguish in letters to newspapers and TV interviews that”we never thought we would actually leave” are everywhere. This was all just a fun exercise to play around with; so why bother with hard information? So the political powers in favour of Remain did little, certainly nowhere near enough. The Leave campaigners were free to proclaim emotive ambitions such as more democracy, control and independence (and more money), always populist vote-getters, to their hearts' content.

There is a known problem with referenda, which is why we almost never have them. Given single issues to vote on, a majority of any populace will be inclined to vote for the impossible. Asked to vote for lower or higher taxes, who wouldn't vote for the former? Asked then to vote for better or worse public services, who wouldn't vote for the former too. So you can easily win referenda, the problem is all about how you deliver, the fact that so often you can't.

And then the result came in……...A problem with such grand ambitions as greater democracy etc, that have so much appeal and trip so easily off the tongue, is that they need a known solid agenda behind them, strategies, actions to be taken that will achieve them, actions that can be seen to be possible and to deliver. Everyone knows this, as these kinds of questions are always posed about pre-general election promises made by politicians: how are you going to do it? The answers are known as a political manifesto, which parties publish before a general election. So where are the answers, the political manifesto for Brexit? It turns out they don't exist, at least as far as anyone knows. For the first time in living memory the UK voted en masse for a pig in a poke. Farage and Johnson are thus far remarkably quiet on the subject. In fact both are doing a good impression of having got themselves into a situation that they have no idea what to do with. They have dangled the vision of a promised land in front of voters and the voters have gone for it. But where exactly is it in our uncharted waters? Er, well, it's uncharted actually. But Columbus, looking for a northern sea route to India and China did find America (more or less); you never know your luck. Anyway, it's all just a fun game.

Except that it isn't. It happens to be just the most important decision the UK has had to take about its future in decades, based on about as much good information as Columbus had when he set off for India and China (yes, India and China, not America).

It now looks as though the UK may, just may, have made an awful mistake, conceivably the greatest mistake in its recent history for not just ourselves but also our progeny. Rather than just stick with a situation we all grumble about, but might reasonably hope to improve gradually, we've chosen to sail into uncharted waters, with progeny on board. If, in our short period of reflection, we decide this is indeed a huge mistake, what can we do?

By a supreme irony of ironies, the answer could just have been supplied by the Leave campaign. Nigel Farage, anticipating rejection in this fun exercise, had already stated that he would demand a second referendum if the result was within about 4%. It was. An eager Leave follower accordingly put up a website displaying a petition to Parliament for a second referendum. He said it attracted no interest before the referendum result. It has now though. Some two million people and counting have signed it within 48 hours, asking Parliament for a second referendum; all of them Remainers. If you realise that, for whatever reason, you've voted for the impossible or even a shot in the dark, what else would you do? Parliament of course decides but……….if you are in a situation that you've no idea what to do about and you are offered a possible way out, why not take it?

Friends' Reaction

My French and other European friends here reacted much as I did: with stupefaction. Britons have a reputation abroad for eccentrcity but not for outright stupidity. They simply could not believe that the UK could be so stupid. There is xenophobia here, of course, but never on such a gigantic scale. All the people I know here, rather than jeer or give me the cold shoulder, have expressed deep sympathy and continued support: they want me in France even if the UK doesn't want to be in Europe.

Black Friday

Black Friday

So the Brexit voters have won, certainly for the moment and maybe forever. Article 50 of the Treaty of Rome will be invoked to start the UK's exit process. The Article is unclear on whether the exit process, once started, can be stopped and reversed but that remains the one straw for people like myself to clutch at. Maybe……….if the terms of exit prove unacceptable even to a right-wing Conservative Britain, just maybe the UK can still stay in the EU. Much may depend on whether the remaining 27 EU countries want to retain the UK enough to try last-ditch persuasion or whether they simply can't be bothered any more.

I find it ironic that, to claims of more democracy, populism, the big weakness of democracy, has won. Who really has won? Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, obviously, and the tabloid comics such as The Sun, The Express, The Star and The Mail. Oh, and Donald Trump and Sarah Palin from the USA have expressed their approval. By their friends shall ye know them.  Above all, xenophobia has won.

Who has lost? Just about everybody else, in the near future. The UK just got smaller in importance on the world stage and may even get physically smaller if Scotland springs a new referendum and votes to leave the UK. Less probably, but possibly, Northern Ireland may just vote to merge with its southern half in order to stay in the EU. Still less likely, but possible, are moves already taking place for London to declare itself an independent city.

The UK economy loses, with growth forecasts from the major economic bodies all downgraded, the FTSE 100 down 8% and the pound at its lowest for more than a decade. Private sector employment in the UK must suffer too, as foreign-owned multinationals move their UK-based operations serving Europe into EU countries. The CEO of JP Morgan is on the record, about a week ago, as pointing out it employs some 3500-4000 people in London to service the European market. If the UK voted Leave, he said, that operation would have to be moved to Europe. How many staff would need to be retained to service just the UK market? Friend Steve commented, on learning that Sunderland, with its Nissan car plant employing thousands making cars for Europe, had voted Leave: “It must be the first time that turkeys have voted for Christmas”.

Another irony is that, with even more austerity and cuts looming, a new army of civil servants will be required for, among other things, increased border controls with quite probably no different terms for entry, to negotiate EU exit terms and to negotiate separate trade agreements with some 100 countries which are currently covered by EU agreements. I wonder how that lot are going to be paid for? Increased spending on the NHS……..Where is Boris Johnson going to get his promised £350 million?

Europe also loses. Chaos will threaten for a time. The overbearing interventionist bureaucracy in Brussels will now certainly be overhauled, if only to avoid demands for referenda in other countries. But the EU will survive; the political will for that is too great for it not to. The result is likely to be a much looser Union, quite probably a two-tier Europe with countries all having opt-out clauses for any central legislation they find unpalatable. Probably the power of the Commission will be curtailed and that of the elected European Parliament increased. In fact, exactly my worst-case scenario, the EU we always wanted with us outside it.

The EU also retains some strengths, in particular its bargaining position with the UK. It's opening position will certainly be that everything remains the same except that the UK has no say in its future legislation. But the UK will have to accept that legislation and pay (significant) amounts to the EU. That is the case with Norway and Switzerland, the other European countries outside the EU with which it has trade agreements. I have previously pointed out that the immigration situation remains the same, in or out; open movement of labour will have to be maintained. That also is a condition of other EU trade agreements. The alternative to agreeing to these conditions? No trade agreement. Some 40% of British exports go to the EU and will then have to find other markets somewhere in the world or suffer a tariff barrier. Cheaper than China, India? England is, and always has been, a nation that lives off its exports; it has few natural resources. It imports, makes and trades. Imports will cost more (devalued pound) and exports will hit tariffs. A stronger economic Britain?

I have one economic hope. It is that the rising cost of living (through weaker pound and imports), rising unemployment (as pointed out) and increased public sector costs will hit home early, in time for this decision to be reversed. Otherwise I can forsee only economic misery for the UK. Whether those who voted Leave in the belief that Britain will be stronger are right remains to be seen. The financial markets can't see it, which is why they called the referendum result wrongly; they didn't think Britain would vote for economic suicide. And if this is simply the result of some people being irritated by annoying legislative details or thinking there are too many Polish plumbers in their locality (a situation that won't change, as pointed out) then this decision will indeed be a tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

What about little old me? I shall try for French citizenship, for which I qualify in principle. So goodbye Little Britain. I knew you when you were a country of which I could be proud to be a citizen.

Recipes

Recipes

I had some Dutch and French friends around to eat a few days ago and served up my version of Poulet Bonne Femme, or chicken with bacon and onion. They all enjoyed it and asked for the recipe and I said I'd post it so it's below. We talked food more generally and they were interested in my recipe for trout so that is below too.

First, poulet bonne femme. Chop up some bacon onion and garlic; I allow about two thin rashers of bacon per person and a couple of medium-sized onions and 4-5 cloves of garlic for four people but it's essentially as you wish. You can optionally add some mushrooms if you want. Fry these up in some oil (I use olive oil) to slightly brown the bacon and soften the rest. Then sprinkle on some flour to soak up the oil, keep fryng for 30 seconds or so to “cook” the flour and then add chicken stock and scrape off any material stuck to the bottom of the pan into the sauce. The result should be a slightly thick sauce. Chop up a leek or two and add to the pan with pieces of skinless chicken breast, large or small as you wish. Continue cooking on a low heat until chicken is done. The heat needs to be low and the contents will need occasional stirring as a thickish sauce can easily stick and burn. Otherwise this dish is easy. I serve it with small potatoes and a green vegetable of some sort; I'll put the lot in the same pot if quantities/number if guests allows.

Now the trout. This really couldn't be simpler. Clean the trout, if you bought them whole, and cut off the head and tail. Allow a whole fish or half a fish per person according to size. Slice up a lemon and some fresh ginger and put 2-3 slices of each in each trout and then seal each trout in aluminium foil. Place on a tray in the oven and cook for 20 minutes in a medium heat. Then grind up some fresh ginger (quantity to taste) and add to butter and lemon juice in a small dish and place in a microwave for a few seconds until the butter melts; this makes a sauce in a small jug. Serve with rice and either mangetout peas or a green vegetable of your choice and people can pour the sauce over as they wish.

Voilà, as we say here. Neither dish is difficult or arduous to make and both have been very well appreciated here when I have served them to friends.

English Conversation

The English conversation classes of my friend Steve and I finished this week for the summer; we plan to restart at the end of September. The current participants took Steve and I, and Steve's wife Jo, out for a meal to thank us for the classes and that was greatly appreciated. What Steve and I have found gratifying also is that the regular participants seem to have formed a social group, making new friends for themselves along the way.

The participants have made significant progress over the past year so Steve and I will have to think hard about what we do when we restart. We have already moved on from Steve and I doing sketches and having the class learn new vocabulary and expressions and to simply throwing the class a subject and getting them to discuss it. But we are running out of topics to discuss. Pronunciation still needs attention, and particularly the tonic accent which has no place in French, and probably more work is needed on dealing with specific situations. Anyway we'll have to think over the summer and come up with a suitable formula for September.

Fruitful Times

We are now at the time of the year I love best, not simply because the flowers are all at their best but because the local fruit is too. There are still quite a lot of strawberries to be had and to add to them there are local cherries, apricots, peaches, nectarines and melons. All ripe, juicy and full of flavour. With the sun beating down and village summer festivities about to begin, what more could anyone want except………….fingers crossed, it's the 23rd?