The Virus War Versus WW2

War On The Virus Versus WW2

It’s been said that we are at war with the virus so I‘ve been playing around wirth the idea of an anology between that and WW2, to see how far the similarities go. Probably too much time on my hands but…...…………….

The lead up to and early days of WW2 were characterised by delay, indecision, unpreparedness and no little incompetence. Forewarning? There were plenty of warning voices in the UK from 1936 onwards and a report recently released shows that the current government knew in 2017, through Exercise Cygnus; it would be unprepared for a future virus. SARS a dozen years ago demonstrated the threat yet the government continued to make cuts to the NHS. An emergency load on medical services occurs in both cases so the analogy holds in all these aspects.

Leadership? Johnson versus Chamberlain? There’s little correspondence other than the indecision and lack of preparedness. Johnson would doubtless like to cast himself in the rôle of Churchill but there’s little correspondence there either. In WW2 we had a coalition cabinet to bring the country together. Now? Dream on. There’s no conscription now but why should there be? There’s no obvious reason but the government has the power to order it if manpower is short and critically needed for whatever. However there has been a successful call for volunteers and the army has been called in in both cases, obviously in the former.

Bomb shelters? Those are now people’s houses. Food shortages in both cases, caused by German U-boats formerly and self-imposed by greedy shoppers now. Air raid wardens? Those are now the police or drones.

Truth in the media as the first casualty of war/ Truth in the mdeia was already a casualty before the current crisis started but is certainly a casualty in both cases.

Isolation? Britain was not alone in 1939, as some like to suggest, unless you discount Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and an empire that covered a quarter of the globe. It need not be alone now but appears to want to be, refusing to join in cooperative initiatives in Europe. Lock-down/up? In the current case it is jock-down; in the former quite a lot, mostly toffs, were locked up.

There is one aspect in which the analogy does not hold up at all. It would be important, when WW2 ended, to evaluate the state of the economy and repair it; but nobody paid any attention to that during the war, the all-important goal was to win it. In this virus war, the goal of winning seems somewhat tempered by considerations of the economy in government pronouncements. After WW2 the UK had the most radical socialist government it has ever had, one which spawned the NHS. Does that come into the analogy?

Key moments? It’s probably too early for those in the current case but an El Alamein moment could be round the corner. A new general and far superior resources? If only…………….

Commentary

I passed this analogy analogy through my son and he made two comments I thought interesting. One was with respect to unpreparedness and forewarnings and the other with respect to how similar communities were then and now.

Thz first comment was words to the effect of “how much of what followed could have been known without hindsight?”. It’s a good question with a simple but simplistic answer: nothing. Nobody can be certain they know anything about future events. Indeed, a good way to inhibit any discussion of the future is to counter any assertion with “but you can’t be certain”. Another oft-discussed imponderable, motivation, can be treated in the same way. And yet intelligent people continue to discuss both. There are many situations, particularly in a war, when it makes sense, indeed can even be imperative, to put together all the known information and assess the probability of future events. Much the same goes for motivation. The important point here is to look at all the information, not just at isolated events. There is considerable documentary evidence that many people in Germany in the 1930s were uneasy at what Hitler was doing but found convenient reasons to excuse individual events. Nobody wants to forecast doom and few wanted to try to create a picture on a canvas of all the events. That was so then and seems so today. I think it very likely that this natural reaction contributed to Britain’s unpreparedness in 1939 but have no idea if, ot to what extent; it has shaped unpreparedness for the virus war. Nobody could know for certain that a new vrus would appear but the possibility was assessed and it was apparently decided neither to take action nor to hedge bets. Should bets have been hedged? That will be a matter of opinion.

My son’s second comment, on similarities or otherwise between communities now and then is also obviously relevant. Differences in life-style abound but but can probably mostly be set aside for the purposes of this exercise. Two pertinent key differences stand out to me: political divisions and closeness within neighbourhoods.

In the 1930s Britain was quite divided politically. The decade had started with a coalition government which was replaced by a Conservative government and the Communist party and the Fascist parties were stronger than at any time before or after. The primary causes of these divisions were the economic depression and attitudes towards Hitler. In the lead up to the virus war Britain had around 4 million worhers earning below the living wage and was split in two over attitudes to Europe. Soon after the outbreak of WW2 a coalition government was formed which helped to unite the country and ensure all were pulling in the same direction. In the virus war, there has been no similar rapprochement.

The difference in communities that strikes me is again essentially one of rapprochement and also of local support. Extended families tended to live very much closer then and neighbourhoods tended to be much closer knit, partly perhaps because far fewer women had salaried work. An important result of this was that there was effectively a strong social support network in most neighbourhoods. There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence for the strength of community spirit then. By the advent of the 21^st century most of the basis for this had disappeared as extended families scattered around the globe and more people travelled further to work. In the virus war, panic buying in UK supermarkets is evidence of the absence of community spirit. Mmany philanthropic people are trying to put together local support groups to fill this gap but a significant difference in the strength of local support seems likely to remain. Certainly there seems little very evidence of any general communal spirit of togetherness.

A final point, a question that children will ask in the future. What did you do in the virus war, mummy/daddy?

Lock-down

Lock-down

It’s the third day of lock-down here and everybody seems to be taking it quite calmly, even cheerfully. The pity is that it would be a beautiful day to be out and about, sunny and warm ; but that is not permitted. I have to content myself with reading on my balcony or pottering in my back gardeh. I went shopping this morning and had to tick and sign an «assertation» before going. The «assertation» is a form showing tick boxes for the legitimate reasons to be out of your house, one of which you have to tick befiore you sign and date the form. Legitimate reasons are going to work, shopping for food or medicines, going to doctors or hospitals, looking after dependent people or, briefly and locally, walking a dog or getting a little exercise. You incur a significant fine if the police catch you outside without one and the police are making a show of presence.

There weren’t many people in the shops but neither were the shops conspicuously deserted. A few of the shoppers were were wearing face masks and there were barriers or lines drawn on the ground to keep shoppers from getting too close to the cashiers. Some people have obviously been stocking up a little but there is no sign of the panic buying that has apparently been going on in the UK. There was quite enough of all the usual produce on the shelves. So life is restricted but far from unbearably so and it seems only common sense to respect the restrictions.

The UK is not yet under lock-down and I have been wondering how it would work there if imposed. There is little reason why it shouldn’t work as it does here although common sense seems to be in as short supply as toilet rolls there, similarly police presence. There is also little reason why, if and when the UK goes under lock-down, it shouldn’t impose similar restrictions to those here but I find it difficult to imagine how they could be effectively policed, so their success or failure will depend on that far from common sense, unfortunately.

I've read, incidentally, that the EU is stockpiling ventilators to be sent to any member counytry when the country experiences peak infection. Although the UK is nolonger a member of the EU the EU has geberously included the UK in this scheme. I doubt that that has been reported in The Telegraph or the rest of the right-wing press in the UK.

There have been cuts to public services here but nothing like on the scale of those in the UK. The cuts in the UK have made savings, for some, but I think the UK is about to find out the costs in terms of peoples’ lives of those savings. A Conservatives MP has been reported saying that the government will end up having to implement Corbyn’s election manifesto. If so, so much the better for the UK.

While The British Doze......zzzzz.......

While The British Doze…..zzzz….

The government lies. Seemingly compulsively. Boris Johnson lied when he said he has made parking free for everyone at hospitals. Actually that is not even nearly everyone. Only some hospital staff, parents staying the night with chikldren in hospital aand handicapped blue-badge holders can park for free. Boris johnson lied when he said that he went to Kettering hospital and met corona virus patients;Kettering hospital has confirmed it has none. Minister Matt Hancock lied when he said the government was working closely with supermarkets to ensure supplies in case of a corona virus epidemic; the supermarkets deny any knowledge of this. So what’s the problem (other than the government’s compulsive lying)?

The underlying problem is that none of these lies are challenged in most of the press, the right--wing press. So the government can tell as many lies as it likes, confident that they won’t be challenged in the press that most of the nation reads. So the British doze…….They have already bought the biggest lie of all, Brexit, so maybe they have become immune to lies and can’t see them.

Is this healthy and, if not, what will it take for the British to wake up? The recent floods might have provided a wake-up call but seem only to have aroused some mumblings at Johnson not going to witness them. The spread of the corona virus could provide another or, as Rees-Mogg’s father has suggested, simply provide another business opportunity to be exploited. On the evidence of the government thus far, lies will simply be used to explain away any inconvenience. The cost of Brexit thus far, some £4.4 billion in readies and £1000 billion in outfliow of investment according to the FT, doesn’t seem to have done the job either. So wh at will it take?

The British are said to be a stoic forbearing lot, slow to stir, and so it seems. But thay are also said to be fierce when provoked. I can only hope that as Brexit unfolds the necessary provocation will occur and the British will wake from their slumber.

The Current State Of Play

The Current State Of Play

On the 1st of February the UK had just left the EU and I got an early morning phone call from the Mairie informing me politely that I no longer had a right to vote in the forthcoming local elections. I had to receive a letter formally informing me of this apparaently and as i declined to go to the Mairie to colect it it duly arrived in the post next day. The mayor has been apologetic to the few Brits around about this necessity, recognising what we add to village life.

I’m seeing increasing numbers of postings on the Internet of people who had voted Leave and are now regretting it as the unicorns start disappearing and reality bites. It tkes coueage to admit you were duped or that you misunderstood even such complicated concepts as sovereignty. The difference between the two is important. Because if misunderstanding is the problem anyone could be to blame and any old scapegoat will do. But if people have been duped then they will, or should, become angry and that is what is necessary.

Perhaps our mayor’s stance is why my long-standing request to the Mairie to prune the trees across the road in front of my house finally bore fruit. Barriers were erected around the trees, the woodsmen arrived and I now have the prospect of a lot more sunlight on the friont of my house this summer. The problem has been that the trees threw shadow over the house which, while providing relief from the summer heat, inhibited the flower display. So I’m looking forward to every plant flowering to its fullest over the coming months.

Every year since I have been here we have had one day of snow, except this year, until today. Today we had a snow flurry for about an hour in the morning. The snow didn’t settle and that may be it for the year but there could be some more to come over the next few days. The snow was a surprise considering that we had been lunching in the sun in a temperature of 18 degrees less than a week ago.

My son, Carl, is with me at the moment and undertook to climb the Via Ferrata in Buis. The photos here are of him climbing the St Julien rock face. I’m proud of his having done that; I’m not sure I could ghave done that even had I been more physically able than I am now. Good for him.

Carl has also helped me get my back garden being in some sort of order. The arch holding the climbing roses had collapsed and that is now fixed thanks to some muscle putting in two metal stakes to reassert the arch. The next job is to sort the leaning column that supports a honeysuckle and another climbing rose. I’m now confident that that can be fixed too.

The First British Reich

Towards The First British Reich: Doninic Cummings’ Challenges

Creating what is essentially a dictatorship in a country with a long democratic tradition is no small task. Of course, an overt dictatorship would never be accepted, at least in the short to medium term. What is needed is a guarantee of continuous leadership in a single direction, achieved by democratic means. That, of couse, doesn’t count technically as a dictatorship but the difference is small.

So how can that be achieved? The first obvious requirement is a continued mass loyal vote to ensure a majority in Parliament. Manipulation of the public, particularly the «lumpenproletariat», can go a long way to achieving this. Our first past the ost system means that we don’t need that large a majority vote (or necessarily even one at all) to get a good majority of MPs in Parliament. Constituency boundaries can be adjusted if need be. But some democratic obstacles will have to be weakened or removed also. Let’s have a look at those.

Journalistic freedom could be a problem theoretically but hasn’t proved much of one in practice: Weakening it should be sufficient if we keep the main newspaper proprietors sweet. Admittedly, the first attempt at knocking uncooperative journalists didn’t go well but that was just a first attempt. Next time our friendly newspaper prorietors will have to be better briefed to send along only journalists who can be relied upon not to walk out. A threat of the sack would probably do it.

Then there is the Internet. We can’t control it (at the moment) but it can be a very useful tool as well as a bit of a problem and, with friend Trump in charge in the USA, we can feel secure that no impediments will be imposed on the main Internet players to curtail access to the data we want. That can be left alone for the moment.

Broadcast media, radio and TV, could pose problems but their need for a licence is a boon here. We can control who gets licences and, if threats aren’t enough, making an example of one or two should do the trick.

Then there’s Parliament itself. Keeping a big majority will be important of course but the National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee will have to be kept under control. That will need a bit of thought. The Office for National Statistics shouldn’t be a problem. We’ve cut their budget and a little more direction on what statistics to collect (and how) should prevent any embarassing numbers coming to light.

There is always the question of human rights but being able to draw up our own Human Rights Act will help a lot, particularly if threats of terrorism can be played up in the popular media when the Bill is made public. It should allow us to cater for any high-profile trouble-makers.

Keeping the lumpenproletariat happy will be a challenge but our friendly popular newspapers xhould be a big help there. We’ve already provided some «sweeties»: increasing the minimum wage and upping the lowest tax threshold were good moves and will be taken as a show of loyalty to the masses and the budgetary effect is minimal. Some other moves, like keeping excise duty on beer and cider constant while increasing that on wines and spirits, can be introduced along the way. The popular newspapers can be relied upon to play on loyalty to Queen and country. The royal family is in a bit of difficulty at the moment but fortunately Harry and Megan have removed themselves from the scene and the Queen can be relied upon as a rallying point. If times get really hard for the masses our English constitution should help.

The beauty of the English constitution is that it is incomplete, unwritten and relies in some important places on gentlemen’s agreements. I don’t think we need to worry about gentlemen getting in the way. We’ve adjusted the relationship between Parliament and the Courts so the latter can’t get in the way either. There’s always been this separation of the police and the military in England but, if things get too bad, we could always call in the military. We could claim a threat of terrorism and northern Ireland would be a precedent for that.

The threat of terrorism has mileage in it but we do need a common enemy for more routine matters as well. The EU should suffice for the next couple of years at least. It’s proved very useful that way already so people will be receptive. We can blame failure to reach agreement on it when we leave the EU without a deal and then any negative consequences afterwards on the same: their refual to negotiate on our terms. When that gives out we could turn to foreigners generally or the mslims again. We’ll think of something.

So far, we’look to be in good shape towards getting our democratic dictatorship. Forward to the first English Reich! (But of couse this couldn’t happen in Britain could it. Didn’t Britain fight a war to stop that?)

For more on this see the link below

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/johnson-leading-revolution-and-time-its-coming-right?fbclid=IwAR2NZ-79uW5xe8oUdZdDZ6F1XL9-ZCMBmJLmzTcHZaS79y-tjMyCcZXRFZo

Chance Or A (Cunning) Plan?

Chance Or A (Cunning) Plan?

The UK is entering into a year-long period of uncertainty in which, probably, planning and chance will both play some rôle. What rôle may each play?

All we can start with is what is already known and Descartes; doubt everything. (Dubito, ergo cogito, ergo sum). Johnson has said he will be going into negotiations with the EU without compromise on what he wants. The EU won’t, cannot, compromise on the fundamentals that bind the EU countries together. What is the most likely outcome? It has to be that the UK leaves the EU without an agreement. This is the more likely in that it appeared to be the preferred arrangement of Johnson before he became PM. So let’s bring in Descartes. Johnson has falked of great opportunities, benefits and friendship to all nations although it appears that no one can give even one concrete example of either of the former. Friendship between nations must be welcomed but is meaningless without context. Descartes can have a field day; everything has to be in doubt.

So, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal will that be chance or might it be a (cunning) plan? It can’t be pure chance because there will have been chances to do a deal. So, if no deal happens, it might be a plan. What then could the plan be?

There seems at the moment an unlikely alliance between a right-wing government and the least educated and most numerous part of the population. This situation is almost without precedent in the last century except in dictatorships and the UK is not a dictatatorship. So js this a matter of pure chance? It does not look like it, given that almost all of the most read popular press, owned by proprietors with clear political objectives, has for several years been been supporting the government in anti-EU sentiment. Get the less-educated and majority readers of the popular press on your side and you have a potential election majority.

So it looks like we have a plan. So, what is the plan? The grand plan, assuming there is one, has to be a matter of conjecture but the means needed to underpin it are clear. The less educated and less well informed majority has to be kept that way and fed something to keep them happy. Any means of enlightenment must be reduced or suppressed and some «sweeties» must be offered.

Is there any evidence for this? Well, the minimum earning wage has been upgraded slightly and os has the lower threshold at which income tax has to be paid. The combined result is that a low-paid worker will be around £200 a year better off. Sweeties? It’s hardly revolutionary.

What about keeping people less informed? Johnson has threatened to take away the licence of the most independent TV news channel, Channel 4, has passed a Parliamentary Act to prevent Parliament scrutinising trade deals, has done similarly to remove the Courts’ right to pronouce on the legality of government actions and, most recently, tried to divide the press by proposing that only pro-government media will be briefed on government plans. The UK is not a dictatorship and hopefully will never become one but these are all classic moves in that direction. This is not to suggest that the Uk is in danger of becoming a dictatrship but these easures ensure that even those seeking good information will have more difficulty finding it and the less well- informed will stay that way. They increase government control of what the populace can know.

Despite supposed uncretainty, I think that at this point chance can largely be discounted. There must be a plan and, whatever it is, the government is positioning itself to deliver it with the minimum of critical scrutiny and a majority of popular suuport, even if it is against the interests of that majotity. And that, I think, is what will most probably happen.

Food For Thought

Food For Thought

On Friday I invited friends for a Burns night, a day early but what the hell. I had brought back two haggis from my trip to Scotland last Ocotober and informed my French friends of what goes into a haggis so they arrived with some trepidation. As we sat having a drink before the meal I also handed them the first three verses of Burns’ poem to the haggis, in Scots of course. The result was a great evening. We started with some Scottish smoked salmon, I’d bought a bottle of Laphroaig to go with the haggis and friend Jo had made a banoffee pie and sticky toffee pudding for dessert so it was a real Scottish meal.. It was the first time my French friends had eaten haggis and poured scotch on their food and, somewhat to their surpise, they loved it. We all laughed at their attempts to understand the Burns poem.

On Sunday I went to the annual old Foggie’s free lunch laid on by the village and served by the mayor and members of the vilage council. The meal is for anyone over the age of 65 living in the village and is to thank those people for past or current services rendered to the village. The food, as usual, was excellent. Some foie gras and tapenade amuse-bouches were followed by scallops in a cream sauce, red snapper, chicken in a mushroom sauce, cheese and a chocolate pudding, all washed down with copious wine. It was yet another great meal. Lucky me.

A report in a British newspaper I read on the internet earlier in the week provided some stark perspective. The report was of a disabled man aged 57 who had starved to death after the Department of Work and Pensions had erroneaously stopped his benefit payments.