Doom And Gloom

.Financial Gloom And Doom

For me personally the recent financial climate has been good in as far as the pound has been relatively strong against the euro. Financial news in all the press and reasonable deductions that can be made from incidental news, however, I find very worrying. And this not about the euro per se, which I expect will stagger along from mini crisis to mini crisis until EU mandarins find the courage to take some really unpalatable decisions. It is about finance more generally, political stability and the conjunction of some rather alarming straws in the wind.

The gap between the very rich and the poor seems to be widening, even disregarding some very dubious use of statistics in some quarters. It may well still not be as great as it has been in previous centuries but previous centuries sorted that out by means of some rather bloody revolutions which it would probably be best not to repeat. Such revolutions may not be obviously on the cards yet but protests are widespread in the developed world and large protests can easily turn violent and get out of hand, with unforeseen consequences.

The protests in the developed world are easily understandable. Levels of unemployment in Greece, Spain and Italy, for example, that would have been inconceivable a decade ago look set to endure for quite a while longer and can only contribute to political instability in those countries. Claims made that pulling out of the recession imposed by the last financial crisis meant we're all in this together are clearly false. The net result of measures taken is that the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. That simply exacerbates political instability.

Reduction of the price of oil to unforeseen levels points to a shrinking global economy. When, for reasons I'm only vaguely aware of, it was deemed necessary to raise the GDP of western economies, it seems that the addition of trade in illegal drugs and prostitution was the only means that could be found. And it seems that one of the few, maybe only consistently profitable lines of business is hedge funds: essentially a gambling casino for the very rich with odds stacked in favour of the punter and, generally, bets on share prices falling (and, effectively, economies shrinking). It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that capitalism is running out of control and, unless the major powers of the world find a way of reining it in, then revolutions of sorts, quite possibly counter-productive, will occur.

None of these points in isolation is necessarily that significant. Put together they paint an alarming picture of the future. And I haven't even mentioned terrorism.

The National Health Service

I occasionally watch BBC Question Time and every time I do I vow never to watch it again. It is simply too frustrating seeing obvious questions not asked, politicians dodging and resorting to point scoring rather than dealing with issues and unincisive chairmanship. My last viewing, a couple of weeks ago, was no exception.

The subject was the NHS and the question asked was whether it could remain free at point of delivery and affordable by the government in the future. The question was admittedly rather badly phrased but no one on the panel or the chairman sought to rephrase it and so everyone just passed the time throwing bread rolls and dodging. The question should have been what is the minimum acceptable level of service by the NHS and can that be afforded by the government in the future. Of course the NHS can remain both affordable and free in the future; you simply cut the level of service, time after time.

If people are prepared to accept weeks' delays in getting a GP appointment, 6 hour delays in getting an ambulance and 12 hours delays in being seen in A&E, then that can probably be provided for free into the foreseeable future. If they want a better service, it will cost more and may not be affordable by the government alone for free delivery. It is almost axiomatic that better service costs more.

Lots of bread rolls were thrown regarding private/public involvement in provision, private medical insurance and comparisons with other countries, all without a semblance of accurate aim. The facts are that the UK population is growing, people are living longer and thus requiring more professional care and medical attention and advances in medicine are providing solutions to previously insoluble medical problems. All those factors imply increased cost. At some point, for even the most caring of governments, these rising costs must raise questions as to what level of service can be delivered for free. That is the real question: what level of service is acceptable and how should that be funded. Personally, I think that any acceptable level of service described by Everyman will at some point become unaffordable for free delivery by government funding alone.

Weather

The weather has been significantly colder over the last month, the first sign of real winter that we have had at this year-end. The most noticeable aspect has been the top of Mt Ventoux, which normally has an enduring covering of snow between mid-December and March but has had that this year only in the past month, during which time also snow has been visible on the hills around down to about 1000ft. That must mean the skiing season on Mt Serein started late and could well finish early. So, unless the weather changes drastically over the next month we will again have had an unusually clement winter.