2017 UK Election: On Reflection

2017 UK Election: On Reflection

On the face of it the election result showed that the government has no mandate for a hard Brexit. This, now, is self-evidently the «will of the people» but don'expect the government to respect that. «The will of the people» was never more than a convenient excuse and the extreme right has never had much time for democracy anyway, as its numerous attempts to avoid parliamentary scrutiny have demonstrated. I think it would be foolish though to assume that the extreme right is as yet defeated. Hammond apart, most senior government posts are still held by the extreme right. Moreover, the mooted alliance with the DUP, with its overtones of cosiness with terrorist-linked groups and threat to peace in Northern Ireland, shows a desperate attempt to cling to power at whatever cost. However, the beauty of the extreme right is that it cannot embrace compromise and must cling to its path, even if that path leads to self-destruction. I hope it does in this case but the extreme right is not dead yet.

Nor should the revival of the Labour party's fortunes be overestimated. There was an undoubted large element of tactical voting in the election which may not be repeated in any future election. However a revival of some dimension must be accredited and I suspect that Corbyn's focus on social issues was crucial and hopefully will keep those at the top of the political agenda. Corbyn is to be congratulated on that and on securing his place at the head of the Labour party for the forseeable future.

The result obviously brings into question the form of Brexit the government can go for. The Daily Telegraph suggests that the government may already be in secret talks with the Labout party regarding the possibilities for a soft Brexit. The talks, if they exist, would have to be in secret because if known they would split the Conservative party completely in two. May has said she will get the Conservtive party out of the mess she has got it into but it is very difficult to see how she can do this. If, again, the talks are happening, they would be in line with declared Labour policy for a soft Brexit but the Labour party would be in position to demand more for any cooperation. It could demand some safeguards on social issues or a parliamentary vote (even a second referendum?) on any final Brexit deal. Needless to say, any of that would be anathema to the extreme right. I suspect that answers to much of this will become clearer once talks with the EU are underway and the initial issues of the rights of EU citizens and financial payments are decided (or not). On the former point, I note that EU Directive 2004/38/EC, which limits free movement for longer than three months, was never implemented in the UK. Now how did that happen?

It will be interesting also to see what line the gutter press in the UK takes in the future. It's campaigns of hate and misinformation patently failed but, if Rupert Murdoch and Lord Rothermere have to give up on their apparent dream of a UK tax haven for the moment, they cannot but react with anger to any soft Brexit deal. We can expect howls of headline protest against «27 countries lined up against us» (they're called the EU) and against the EU totally unreasonably sticking to its treaties and regulations (how dare it?) but what else? Has its readership started trying to use its brains, Heaven forbid? If blatant lies and slurs don't work, could a subtler approach be applied? But then asking the gutter press to be subtle is like asking an elephant to be dainty and, anyway, their readership would probably miss any subtlety. Like the Conservative party, the gutter press will need a rethink.

"Stable and strong" has become weak and wobbly. Time for a rethink indeed.

UK Election 2017: Immediate Reaction

UK Election 2017: Immediate Reaction

I woke to some good news this morning and, since good news is normally better to read than bad news, I shall relay it as I see it.

A hung Parliament is the best result I could reasonably have hoped for, so that pleases me. A wag has suggested that someone is going to have to explain to Donald Trump what a hung Parliament means, which should slow him down for a week or two (add coalition government and make that a month). Nigel Farage is upset, which should please everyone, and Rupert Murdoch is reportedly very angry, which means the Sun newspaper has failed in its campaign and puts it in the rubbish bin where it belongs. The best tweet I saw was football commentator Gary Lineker's, that Theresa May should be awarded own goal of the season. All good news.

A hung Parliament increases uncertainty and confusion and why should I want that? Because it gives the idea of a hard Brexit a good kicking and, to paraphrase May herself, shows that maybe no prime minister is better than a bad prime minister. Brexit means Mexit? I still regard the referendum result as a speculative extreme right-wing coup and the extreme right-wing got a good kicking too. Going in no certain direction may not be ideal but it is certainly better than going hell for leather («stably and strongly») in the wrong direction.

The financial markets reacted predictably by marking down the pound and the UK economy. But the financial markets typically change their minds every few days/weeks, in line with in-play betting saloon that they really are. I happen to believe that the election result could be good for both the pound and the UK economy in the long-term, which is never a concern of the financial markets.

A catch-phrase among opposition parties was that June should see the end of May. It has. She's staying on as Prime Minister for the moment, even though the honourable thing to do would be to resign. By her own declared criterion («if I lose 6 seats or more I will have lost the election») she lost the election. But what has honour to do with the current government? Still the knowledge that Tory bigwigs' knives must be hovering somewhere in the region of her kidneys should concentrate her mind wonderfully. If no one removes her earlier, perhaps a complaint registered with north Yorkshire police will do it. She lied about Diane Abbot in a pre-election speech there and to do so is a criminal offence with a precedent of a Conservative MP banned from public office. Who will eventually replace her must be problematic. Boris Johnson is surely too much of a clown and too lightweight to contemplate and I think that David Davis is not really trusted even by his own party. Maybe we can borrow Emmanuel Macron for a while.

I have been puzzled for months as to why neither of the major political parties appears to be interested in the middle ground, where most votes are generally considered to lie. The middle ground, though, has shown that it is still interested by apparently rejecting both extremes. Will some party please pay attention?

Some interesting statistics emerged in the pre-election wrangling. Pre-election polls showed around 70% of the over-65s intended to vote Conservative while the same percentage of under-25s intended to vote Labour. Interestingly almost exactly the same split appeared in the post-referendum analysis: 70% oldies to leave and the same percentage of youngsters to remain. The people with most at stake in the future of the UK have clearly shown what they want, even if they are unlikely to get it.

Some financial statistics were also of interest. It turns out that, over the last 50 years, Conservative administrations have borrowed significantly more and repaid significantly less than Labour administrations. So, contrary to popular belief, Labour has been the financially responsible party and the Conservative party the spendthrifts. Conservative complaints that Labour proposals haven't been properly costed are countered by David Davis admission that the hard Brexit for which we were headed hasn't been costed at all. Furthermore, since the last cut in corporation tax (with another promised by the government) investment in companies has gone down, not up as claimed, the extra money going to shareholders. So cuts in corporation tax do not encourage investment by

companies. The more Alice in Wonderland claims are made by politicians and myths promulgated the more reliable financial statistics become relevant.

What will be the effect of a coalition government, with the DUP? I've no idea, like most people probably. However, immediate post-election analysis showed Brexit to be the principal issue among Consservative voters and social matters to be that among Labour voters. Northern Ireland voted in favour of remaining in the EU and social concerns there will certainly be paramount, if not necessarily with the DUP. The Irish border and peace agreement dependency on the EU will also certainly be a major issue. Whatever the case, May may not get away with her apparent plan to sell off the NHS and turn the UK into an offshore tax haven with no appreciable public services.

The NHS, Naylor Report And Election

The NHS, Naylor Report And The Election

The suggested, by the Leave campaign, £350 million for the NHS if the UK left the EU is now generally accepted as the lie that it always was. Some, however, still think that there should be some extra money for the NHS. The Naylor Report nails (sic) that. Theresa May's assertion that she will implement the Naylor Report means that not only is there not £350 million extra for the NHS there is actually no extra money at all, not even a penny. NHS Trusts will first have to sell of any property assets they have (buildings, land) if they want extra money. All NHS assets are to be transferred to a new body, NHS Properties. The government will then double, for the NHS Trust in question, whatever sum is raised by the sale of its asset, up to a total of £10 billion for all NHS Trusts. This will be trumpeted as a further £10 billion investment in the NHS. NHS Property Services is to be run by a person with strong connections to American healthcare.

Let's take an example. An NHS Trust strapped for cash and urgently in need for more (all of them?) has an asset worth £20 million. It very urgently needs at least some of that money and so must sell, urgently. What is the negotiating position of a potantial buyer? The buyer could say: «We'll give you just £10 million, then the government will give you another £10 million, and so you will get the £20 million you need». That must look like daylight robbery to the NHS Trust involved but it can't wait and the investor can. So what happens? With competition for the asset, most probably some compromise is reached (£12 million say, even £15 million?) and so the investor gets a bargain. The overall result? The NHS Trust loses something and the investor gets rich. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Those who bought the £350 million on the side of that famous bus now must know that they were conned. The to-be-trumpeted £10 billion investment in the NHS is another con. The principal referendum conmen are now senior government figures. They are good at conning; it makes them successful. So do you think they are going to stop doing it? If you like being conned, vote for them; you can be sure you will be conned in the future.

May Versus Corbyn: The TV Debate

May vs Corbyn: The TV «Debate»

Clarity is all. It wasn't quite a debate because the two weren't face to face but I thought it an interesting exercise anyway. I thought neither did particularly well but nor did they do particularly badly. Judging by its reactions, the audience was quite well balanced in its sympathies, even including a small but obvious UKIP claque.

The clearest point that came through to me was when Paxman questioned May on her view of the economic impact of Brexit, which May had stated before the referendum as likely to be very damaging. May, very pointedly I thought under close questioning from Paxman, made no attempt to retract that opinion. She merely repeated that she was going to make a success of Brexit (and that «strong and stable government» would help, even if it doesn't affect the strength of the EU hand in negotiations).

So, what could success look like. Presumably it means minimising the economic damage. What else can it mean? With trading agreements with the EU and some 50+ other countries certain to be generally less advantageous (see previous postings), the economic damage could be very considerable indeed. Add the cost of Brexit and….……...So how can damage be minimised? I can't see any way other than a quick trade agreement with the EU, which must therefore be very much on their terms. That was what impressed me most in the debate and I don't think it came though clearly, perhaps because both contestants were on the same side regarding Brexit. Nonetheless Brexit will go ahead since both major political parties support what one commentator described as «a unique national act of deliberate self-harm». The decision of an electorate admittedly lied to, misinformed and widely ignorant of the consequences must be «respected».

And clarity is perhaps what is most lacking. The government has made several efforts to avoid parliamentary scrutiny of negotiations and most of the British press is unlikely to publish any bad news in that regard. May insists she needs lack of clarity so as not to reveal her negotiating hand but the EU has insisted that all negotiations must be open and transparent; so the EU itself will be an invaluable source of information over the coming years. Indeed, the EU has stated that it believes the British electorate is still ignorant of the implications of Brexit, as it most obviously is. Why would people vote to be worse off?

Two things trouble me most. One is the seemingly far too easy general acceptance of essentially empty slogans. To the «making Britain great» and «taking control» can now be added «strong and stable government» and the comfortably optimistic escape clause that «nobody yet knows how things will turn out». Nobody yet knows whether the world will end tomorrow but one can examine the evidence, think (above all, THINK) and come to some form of reasonably probable conclusion. I hate that so few people seem to question what this populist garbage and blind unsubstantiated hope really means. The other troubling item is the aggressive stance of extreme right-wing, essentially UKIP, supporters on every public platform. It smacks too much of brown shirts. I can't remember when the neo-Nazi element in the British public was as prominent as it is now.

Macron And The Secret Of Life

Macron And The Secret Of Life

I had proposed to Steve that we should have a meeting of the English conversation class at my house, for aperitifs, rather than in the room below the Mairie, and he agreed. So this evening we did it. It was a success in all respects, I think. Certainly everybody seemed to enjoy themselves, some staying for three hours and everybody for at least two. The food all got eaten (I hate left-overs from aperitif sessions), the wine supply was seriously diminished and the conversation never flagged. Most importantly, with a couple of minor lapses, everyone spoke English all the time. (I had threatened them with Wolof and Spanish as the only acceptable alternatives to English for the evening, sure that nobody spoke either.) Two-three hours solid of English was no mean feat for people who still find speaking English a challenge.. I felt I had to congratulate everyone. These are people who wanted more in life, but not financially.

It led me to reflect on life here. For me it is great; I love the locality, a lot of the people, the weather, the scenery, the local produce and the village life in general. But I am retired and can afford to indulge in all that. For a younger person the scene must be different. Younger people need to build a life and job opportunites and variety here are very constrained. Some, it seems, are content to just «get by». They survive economically on casual employment and are otherwise content just to enjoy the same good things that I do. But building a better life must be problematic. With just oneself to take care of there is little problem but if one wants to raise a family and give them a better life, how can it be done?

The problem is probably common in small rural communities across the world. Here it seems to coalesce into two distinct attitudes among the French to themselves and, indeed, to their new President. I have French friends who want things to stay very much as they are, because life as it is seems good to them. Others decry this, say the French are just dozing, and laud what they perceive as the anglo-saxon attitude of «get up and go». Some have commented on how the English (friends Jo and Steve and I) have invigorated the life of the village with our English conversation classes, organisation of ad hoc choirs, (English) floral displays and boules playing.

A contributing factor is certainly the oft-proclaimed north-south divide and from which you happen to originate; in other words, the weather. If the outlook is cold, wet and bleak, whatever you do you are not going to relax outside. Also you need to keep warm and you need the money to fund that, a considerable incentive to use initiatve and find paid work. This in turn, I feel, spills over into social life. Do you just accept what the commune offers for entertainment and interest or do something to add to it? So what is the secret for a satisfying life?

These dilemmas come together in Macron. My French friends seem to be ambivalent about him. He won the presidency primarily, I think, as the preferable alternative to Le Pen. What the French seem to find puzzling about him is that he has impeccable credentials for neither right nor left, which confounds their love of pure theory. His penchant for entrepreneurialship appeals to the right but he has socialist tendencies also. The left accept his socialist claims but deplore the entrepreneurial side. The big problem for the French, it seems, is that they can't place him anywhere in theory, neither fowl nor beast. But maybe, just maybe, that is exactly what France needs for a better life for its citizens. Whatever the future holds for French life, to the usual certainties of death and taxes can be added demonstrations and strikes as Macron attempts to make the changes he feels are necessary.

Hyères, Chelsea and Fruit

Hyères

The stay in Hyères for the regional boules championships was very enjoyable even if my team didn't do very well. The hotel looked out over the bay and you could see the Porquerolles islands clearly, bringing to mind Jospeh Conrad's novel The Rover, which I had studied at school. When I go to the coast I still get surprised by how different and far in advance the vegetation there is from that around Mollans, considering it is only a couple of hours drive away. Apart from the Mediterranean pines, which frame all the views, the lack of hard frosts in the region mean that plants that don't survive the winter here are already in full bloom there in early May, gazanias, bougainvillea and many others providing a panoply of vivid colour. The weather wasn't great, with a very high wind blowing continuously, but that somehow suited the scenery and brought The Rover even more to mind.

Chelsea

I have been restrained in mentioning my fanatical support for Chelsea football club in this blog but can't resist mentioning them now that they have once again won the Premier League in England. This time they have done it with not only the grit and consistency required but also panache and flair. I'm among the probably very few supporters now who saw them lift this trophy for the first time in 1955 when, as a 13 year-old I invaded the pitch at the end of the last game of the season and stood in adulation of the team in front of the East Stand. An aunt had taken me to my first game at the stadium, Stamford Bridge, in 1952, a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa if I remember rightly, That was when the bug first bit me and I have been bitten by it ever since. Coincidentally, neighbour Monique told me that she always had all the news about Chelsea from a grandson of hers in Paris who had surprised his family by turning down the offer of a Paris St Germain shirt and insisting he wanted only a Chelsea one. Good for him. When he visits Monique we'll have to get together.

Fruit And Garden

The first cherries are now in the shops and markets. Unlike the season for other fruit the cherry season does not last long but supplements the strawberries and melons now in plentiful supply. I always have a melon and some strawberries in the house at this time of year but will have to find space, in my stomach as well as the house, for some cherries as well. There is a variety here, griottes, that is not sweet (or sour) and is used just in preserves; I never remember encountering them in England but I guess they must be grown there.

And, finally, all the roses in my back garden are now in full bloom so I can't resist adding a photo of some of them. The back garden is looking good and a French friend gave me the French phrase I have been searching for to explain the look to French friends who think it seems to be a jungle or ngelected. The phrase is «un savant désordre»; thanks, Yvette.

Spring/Summer, Food, Gardens: Ruminations

Spring/Summer, Food, Garden: Ruminations

A week ago I was thinking that summer was already here, a thought immediately overturned by several days of wind, storm and rain. The weather even managed to dump a large precipitation of snow on the summit of Mont Ventoux, which had been clear of snow for many weeks until now. The road from the ski station to the summit should have been opened yesterday and I wonder whether a snow plough was sent up to clear it but don't think I'll go up to find out.

Anyway, if it is not definitely summer yet it soon will be, a certainty that I never had in England. Summer never arrives there until June at the earliest and some years seems to forget to arrive ar all. Yesterday, the 1st of May, is a holiday here, as it now is in England. Traditionally, in France, you give a sprig of Lily of the Valley to your loved ones on May 1st, which I think is a rather charming tradition, much more impressive to me than the traditional Russian military parades. If the Russians must have military parades perhaps they could decorate the armaments with sprigs of Lily of the Valley; it would provide a nice counterpoint.

Unlike Britain, the French still have Whitsun as a holiday. The State and religion may be rigidly separated here but the French still hang on to the religious holidays. I view that not as inconsistent but rather as evidence of a strong regard for the quality of life: keep the best bits of everything and to hell with logic if it gets in the way.

The group of us playing boules in Buis yesterday afternoon was approached by an American woman wanting to know where there was a food shop open. Deciding her mangled French might be better served by someone who understood American, the group directed her to me and I had to listen to her mangled English. There had been supermarkets open for a few hours in the morning (a new development on holidays here) but she would have to wait for today. In England there would almost certainly have been a corner shop run by Asians open to serve her. She suggested half-heartedly that she and her friends might come to my house to eat but I uncharitably pointed out the large number of cafe/restaurants open. I expect she experienced culture shock but that would have been coming anyway. The French take their holidays (and lunch hours) very seriously, as she will find out.

In the meantime..…..….…..…...I have to do something about my own food shopping. I usually entertain friends a couple of times per week and had decided to cook pork belly for one evening. I cook it to death, very slowly, so that the fat dissolves and it ends up all meat and crackling. I found it in the small supermarket in Buis, which has a very good butcher. Having asked for that I noticed that they had lamb neck chops at a very reduced price and immediately thought «lamb stew». Given the weather, that seemed appropriate so I bought a number of those. Which means that one or the other has to go in my freezer. In England I only ever had a fridge-top freezer but friend Jo persuaded me I would need a bigger one here, which I duly bought. Now I'm finding that large freezers are like a self-fulfilling prophecy, subject to something like Parkinson's Law: the space available always gets filled. It gets filled because I have a life script learned from my mother, who was always short of money and had me to feed, that you grab a food bargain when you see one. The result? A freezer always full. This is in a place that still has greengrocers, butchers, bakers (and scented-candle makers) and more fresh food widely available than I ever had in England, when I had only a fridge-top freezer. Something has to give; I have some unlearning to do.

My garden, front and back, is coming on nicely (see photos) although the roses in bloom have taken rather a battering from the rain. Four of the clematis in the front are now in bloom and I've managed to extend, or rather deepen the earth, on the roadside opposite my kitchen window and have planted more lavendar, some allium bulbs and rambling nasturtiums to supplement what was already there.

The irises there have more or less finished blooming but a Nellie Moser clematis is full of bloom and the Dublin Bay rose against one of the trees is adding to the colour. I'm hoping the deeper earth will allow the additions to survive when the high-summer heat hits. On the hillsides around, the irises and coronilla that have been regaling us have just over the last few days been joined by the broom, which will extend the yellow panorama for another couple of months.