Doom And Gloom

.Financial Gloom And Doom

For me personally the recent financial climate has been good in as far as the pound has been relatively strong against the euro. Financial news in all the press and reasonable deductions that can be made from incidental news, however, I find very worrying. And this not about the euro per se, which I expect will stagger along from mini crisis to mini crisis until EU mandarins find the courage to take some really unpalatable decisions. It is about finance more generally, political stability and the conjunction of some rather alarming straws in the wind.

The gap between the very rich and the poor seems to be widening, even disregarding some very dubious use of statistics in some quarters. It may well still not be as great as it has been in previous centuries but previous centuries sorted that out by means of some rather bloody revolutions which it would probably be best not to repeat. Such revolutions may not be obviously on the cards yet but protests are widespread in the developed world and large protests can easily turn violent and get out of hand, with unforeseen consequences.

The protests in the developed world are easily understandable. Levels of unemployment in Greece, Spain and Italy, for example, that would have been inconceivable a decade ago look set to endure for quite a while longer and can only contribute to political instability in those countries. Claims made that pulling out of the recession imposed by the last financial crisis meant we're all in this together are clearly false. The net result of measures taken is that the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. That simply exacerbates political instability.

Reduction of the price of oil to unforeseen levels points to a shrinking global economy. When, for reasons I'm only vaguely aware of, it was deemed necessary to raise the GDP of western economies, it seems that the addition of trade in illegal drugs and prostitution was the only means that could be found. And it seems that one of the few, maybe only consistently profitable lines of business is hedge funds: essentially a gambling casino for the very rich with odds stacked in favour of the punter and, generally, bets on share prices falling (and, effectively, economies shrinking). It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that capitalism is running out of control and, unless the major powers of the world find a way of reining it in, then revolutions of sorts, quite possibly counter-productive, will occur.

None of these points in isolation is necessarily that significant. Put together they paint an alarming picture of the future. And I haven't even mentioned terrorism.

The National Health Service

I occasionally watch BBC Question Time and every time I do I vow never to watch it again. It is simply too frustrating seeing obvious questions not asked, politicians dodging and resorting to point scoring rather than dealing with issues and unincisive chairmanship. My last viewing, a couple of weeks ago, was no exception.

The subject was the NHS and the question asked was whether it could remain free at point of delivery and affordable by the government in the future. The question was admittedly rather badly phrased but no one on the panel or the chairman sought to rephrase it and so everyone just passed the time throwing bread rolls and dodging. The question should have been what is the minimum acceptable level of service by the NHS and can that be afforded by the government in the future. Of course the NHS can remain both affordable and free in the future; you simply cut the level of service, time after time.

If people are prepared to accept weeks' delays in getting a GP appointment, 6 hour delays in getting an ambulance and 12 hours delays in being seen in A&E, then that can probably be provided for free into the foreseeable future. If they want a better service, it will cost more and may not be affordable by the government alone for free delivery. It is almost axiomatic that better service costs more.

Lots of bread rolls were thrown regarding private/public involvement in provision, private medical insurance and comparisons with other countries, all without a semblance of accurate aim. The facts are that the UK population is growing, people are living longer and thus requiring more professional care and medical attention and advances in medicine are providing solutions to previously insoluble medical problems. All those factors imply increased cost. At some point, for even the most caring of governments, these rising costs must raise questions as to what level of service can be delivered for free. That is the real question: what level of service is acceptable and how should that be funded. Personally, I think that any acceptable level of service described by Everyman will at some point become unaffordable for free delivery by government funding alone.

Weather

The weather has been significantly colder over the last month, the first sign of real winter that we have had at this year-end. The most noticeable aspect has been the top of Mt Ventoux, which normally has an enduring covering of snow between mid-December and March but has had that this year only in the past month, during which time also snow has been visible on the hills around down to about 1000ft. That must mean the skiing season on Mt Serein started late and could well finish early. So, unless the weather changes drastically over the next month we will again have had an unusually clement winter.

Charlie Hebdo

Charlie Hebdo

It is difficult to let the Charlie Hebdo attack and its aftermath go uncommented here. The village held its tribute to the victims on Friday, a minute's silence outside the Mairie. The relevant details have all been published and I can add nothing other than a personal view.

Firstly, the claimed legitimacy for the attack on Charlie Hebdo's offices should be dismissed out of hand. Islamic extremists were of course provoked by Charlie Hebdo's cartoon, as indeed they could claim to be provoked by the day-to-day life of almost everyone in western society. Western society has standards that Muslim extremists will never accept and has every right to those standards. As much was demonstrated by the public display of solidarity by the leaders of western nations and religious groups in France. Any Muslim who cannot accept that should live elsewhere if possible or else confine their objections to peaceful protest.

I think too much attention has been given in western societies to Muslim sensitivities, no doubt partly because of fear of such reprisals. Politically correct circles and advocates of bizarre forms of multiculturalism have played no small part in this. Sensitivity to others beliefs is a laudable form of courtesy but not to the extent that it precludes criticism or occasional lampooning; those are rightly cherished freedoms in the west and must remain so, the more so if threatened by fear

By the same token western nations have erred, I believe, in their interventions in Arabic nations' affairs. Democracy and freedom of speech have never had much of a role in Arab culture and the west has no right to try to introduce them. If other countries willingly harbour groups plotting and effecting terrorist acts in western countries then by all means give them a bloody nose but stay out of their culture. Even, I would argue, if clear atrocities are being carried out in their countries the west should abstain from direct intervention. If their culture is to change and become more humane, the inhabitants of the countries themselves must effect that change.

At the root of much of this is oil and Israel. While the west remains dependent on Arab oil, so foreign policies will be skewed accordingly. And Israel's situation, whilst complex and difficult in the extreme, has not been helped by their policies and strategies towards Arabs in and around their territories. Netanyahu's offer to have the Jewish hostages who were killed buried in Israel was a blunder simply pouring fuel on the fire, another stupid mistake.

The world is in a mess but at least we should not compound the mess.

French And Holidays

Le mot juste

I have become very wary of the danger of making a perfectly accurate translation of English into French but one that is simply not how the French would express themselves. Years ago, when translating the booklet on the History of Mollans I fortunately had the prescience to get friend Steve to check my English. I had blithely translated “monument aux morts” as monument to the dead and Steve pointed out that we call that a war memorial; obvious, but I'd missed it. That was French into English but the same applies in the opposite direction.

So, establishing the French version of the media library for my website (www.mon-mollans-sur-ouveze.fr), I have been adding French captions to the photos as I loaded them. That is something I generally feel happy doing without consulting my French translators. One caption, however, needed to be for a photo of villagers dressed up in historical costumes for a parade through the village. I decided on “defile en costumes” (with acute accents on three of the “e”s which I haven't put in here because the Blogger software screws up the HTML after accents). It then occurred to me that “defile costume” (accent-free zone again and in following text) might be the term needed so I asked Daniel when he called in for an aperitif. He confirmed that I had the right expression, adding as an aside that if it had been a ball it would have to be “bal costume” (costume ball or fancy dress ball in English?) and not “bal en costumes”.

Daniel and I then chatted through some other similar traps. I already knew that an “assurance vie “ was not life insurance; it translates as endowment insurance. What we English call life insurance translates into French as death insurance, reasonably enough. Another example we came up with was the “mutiles de guerre” notices that used to be placed next to selected seats on Paris metro trains. In English that wouldn't be war mutilated but war wounded (blesse in French); same idea, just a different way of expressing it. Incidentally it occurred to me that both French and English expressions for war memorial were inadequate. The term war memorial is not a memorial for a war but for the dead of a war; the term “monument aux morts” is not for the dead in general but for the dead of a war or wars. So both cultures have made compromises without finding a succinct “mot juste”. What should the (succinct) expression be?

Spell-checkers

Decades ago, when electronic calculators were the new “must have”, an American IT friend commented to me that it was a pity because American kids were losing the ability to calculate themselves and calculators often made errors, particularly when the batteries were running down. I knew the problem and always made a round-figure mental calculation when using a calculator and believed the result if it was broadly the same. An analogous situation now is with spell-checkers; evidence on the internet suggests kids can no longer spell and aren't aware of the dangers of relying on spell-checkers.

The Holidays

The “fetes” as they are known here have passed quietly and happily as far as I am concerned. For me, an atheist, Christmas is all about kids and their excitement. In their absence, and since days off work are no longer relevant, Christmas is little more than an occasion to spend something extra on food and drink; also an occasion when most people feel they should be jolly (“disapproval would be folly”: Tom Lehrer). When I was in my teens, it was about that and parties. The same goes more or less for the new year, except that young kids don't really come into it, except for any fireworks displays going on locally or on TV. There is always a “reveillon” or two in the village but I've never felt inclined to sign up for them. So it has been for me.

My one outstanding memory of the new year is witnessing some car carnage when tracking back home in the very icy early morning with a girlfriend from a party in central London. A car parked along the road we were walking along was trying to extricate itself from a line of parked cars with a ridge of iced snow against its outside wheel. Revving up to the maximum it escaped the ridge only to slither across the road and crash into cars parked opposite, ricochet back into cars parked on the side it had been, ricochet again into cars parked on the opposite side and then drive on, leaving seven or eight cars on either side of the road distinctly damaged. No happy new year for some.