Brexit Credo

Brexit Credo

Should a country be united? Obviously it helps greatly as far as stable government is concerned, and it certainly did formerly, in time of war, although «the people» will be little concerned in any future war except as recipients as whatever is thrown at them. Cannon fodder is no longer required. But there will probably be a wide range of opinions in any country on any subject of national importance. So, for stable government, which is desirable, how are wide divisions to be avoided?

In the past the obvious wide divisions have generally been between the nobles and the rest of the populace. Nobles held the power and the means to stop the populace usurping it. Throughout the 20th century, revolutions and progresssive moves to democracy of various kinds mean that that power has been eroded; yet deep divisions remain. So what is the basis of them? Class, being noble or not, is clearly not it. I would argue that the current basis for these deep divisions is wealth, the much-discussed wealth gap which has been widening in most western countries for decades now, and has always been even wider in economically developing countries.

Wealth is power, in many senses if not all. And if wealth is the new overriding power, how do the wealthy hang on to it and prevent the general populace getting a larger share of it, as they must want to do? They can't do it by right, as the former nobles could, since revolutions and moves towards democracy have got in the way, hurdles the wealthy must circumvent. So how can the wealthy best circumvent these hurdles whilst keeping the general populace, if not overtly on their side (why should they be that?) then effectively so? There has to be an appeal to what the general populace will identify with. Therein we have the requirements: messages the general populace will identify with and the means to deliver these messages.

The most obvious appeal to the general populace will be a greater share of the general wealth, but that runs counter to the wealthy keeping their wealth. So what else might appeal to the general populace? In a generally benign society there will be a a general fund of goodwill; nobody will automatically think of naked self-interest as a motivation; rather people will think of different views of what the general interest might be. So, if naked self-interest of the wealthy is the goal, what could the messages be? Patriotism is a strong possibility, especially if an enemy to patriotism (traitors, saboteurs, terrorists) can be invoked. Religion is another, if a broad appeal or a narrow target can be found. A third is any potential danger to the general populaces' status quo, however meagre (e.g. uncontrolled external influence). And a fourth is the idea of taking control, control that will allow people the possibility of improving their lives.

Those are enough messages so the remaining question is how to promulgate them. Obviously the need is to take control of the media most seen and read by the general populace and through them promulgate the required messages. If those are in the control of the wealthy, who want above all to retain their wealth, then the job is done.

As it has been, I think.

UK General Election

UK General Election

Having made readers of this blog suffer my ramblings on politics and Brexit I feel I should give an immediate (but only initial) reaction to the news that Theresa May has called a general election. The following are my initial thoughts, having had little time to think things through. They may sound a bit Machiavellian.

I think Theresa May is boxing very cleverly and worry that the opposition is not up to it. I don't believe the claimed reason for the general election is the real one. Theresa May has so far made no clear attempt to unify the country but she does care about parliamentary power, as do most politicians (other than Corbyn), and has worked out that she has a better chance of securing power now than she woud have in 2020 (when most of the downside of Brexit and none of any advantages, if any, would be visible). Corbyn is pro-Brexit. He thinks he'll get the support of the grunt Labour supporters that way and has said he wants a Brexit pro-jobs, workers' rights and public services. Nobody seems to have explained to him that there isn't such a thing. It's just more Alice In Wonderland. The government has now cleverly said that Parliament will have the final say on the eventual Brexit terms but the eventual Brexit terms are so far away (10 years?) as to be irrelevant. Although the Tories have a slim majority in Parliament now the polls show the Tories with a massive majority of support and Corbyn has effectively resigned from doing anything about that. One thing the election does is to allow the real issues to be aired but, since nobody knows for sure what will be negotiated, nobody can say what the outcome of these issues will be. The government can, and almost certainly will, promise everything, say that of course they will negotiate with the best interests of the British people at heart and afterwards simply say, «Sorry, we couldn't get the terms we wanted but we tried». Who can disprove that now?

I'm far from sure that the electorate is up to what it will take to break Brexit, or even ensure it is a soft one, which would be for every Remainer, and I mean every Remainer, to disbelieve whatever the government says and vote tactically to unseat theTory candidate in their constituency. The best feasible result in that case would be a hung Parliament and even then Corbyn could torpedo that if the Labour party doesn't manage to get rid of him beforehand.

My best guess now, and it is only a guess, is that Labour will lose a shed-load of seats, the Lib-Dems will make some gains but not enough to offset the Labour losses, and UKIP may gain a seat or two. The only really persuasive Remain argument for the electorate will be if it can definitely be shown that Brexit must be negative economically, an argument that can easily dismissed as scare stories as it was at the time of the referendum. The negative economic data is already evident but since the result of Brexit negotiations are unknown, who now can prove that those are not scare stories (even though evidence is mounting daily)? And nationalistic cries to «taking control» and «getting our country back» could well trump (Trump) them. Sad, but that is how I see it at the moment. Given the increased majority that the government wants and will probably get, it will proceed to a hard Brexit and the UK can say goodbye to public services, including the NHS. The opposition should then be a lot stronger but it will be too late. Thank you very much, Jeremy Corbyn.

My Poor Country

My Poor Country

I am English but will shortly be applying for French citizenship. The reason is simply that I plan to spend the rest of my life living in France and the Brexit decision means that I will need French citizenship to have full rights here. The delay in my application is because on the 14th of September I will have been living in France, full-time, for 10 years which means that under French law I have a right to stay, but not necessarily full rights as a French citizen. An application before that date could put my right to stay in question, so I shall delay my application until the 14th of September. I have every reason to hope that my application will be successful but no right to claim that it will be. So be it.

I am, or have been, quite proud to be British and have never thought about acquiring a dual nationality before now. Necessity now dictates that. And now, for the first time, I am having to ask myself if I really want to be British (even though I may be able to be both British and French). I have lived in Britain, England to be more precise, for most of my life and have loved being in England. Why should I have any doubts now?

My doubts arise not simply because of the Brexit referendum result but also the follow-up. Successive polls from numerous sources have shown a swing in public opinion away from the referendum result but not by a wide margin. The swing would be enough to reverse the referendum result but only by a margin similar to that which created the result. With daily evidence being revealed that leaving the EU will do Britain economic harm (the precise degree to be debated), why is this so? Why would people continue to vote to be worse of, when most elections in Britain hinge on control of the economy, the expectation that the new government will make people better off, or at least no worse off?

It all seems to me to come down to the fundamental issue of immigration; and ignorance. In all the polls, the rôle of immigrants features as a major issue and is seen as negative despite numerous similar investigations also showing immigrants as not only being positive with respect to the economy but, indeed, essential to it. So, in that respect, popular opinion is in conflict with the facts. There is also the fact that analyses of the referendum voting shows that some 75% of those who voted Remain had continued their education beyond the age of 16. They had brains enough, and used them, to see that the emotionally appealing slogans of «getting my country back» and «taking control» lacked all reasonable content. A similar percentage of people under the age of 26 voted Remain, understandably concerned about the economic consequences of Brexit and their job prospects.

It is therefore difficult to come to any conclusion other than that the referendum result was a victory for xenophobia and ignorance. Anecdotal evidence around the polls tends only to confirm that. Reasons given for continuing to back Brexit in the face of mounting negative economic evidence, if not simply unreasoned repetition of the empty slogans, tend to be xenophobic or outrightly racist. And the steep rise in race-related crimes recorded in the last year only underlines that. The difficult question for me, whether or not I achieve dual nationality, is do I want to be associated with a country currently ruled by xenophobia and ignorance? What is certain is that Britain will be poorer as a result of Bexit, as 70% of MPs declared before the referendum. What is also certain is that in my extremely limited capacity I shall oppose in any way I can the course on which Britain is currently embarked.

Summer Already?

Summer Already?

The weather seems to be ahead of itself this year. Spring does not last long here but already the primroses, japonica and forsythia bushes and all the spring bulbs have finished their blooming and now we have a show of irises, wisteria, tamarisk and Judas trees and coronilla and poppies in the wild. I've already planted the hanging baskets that I don't usually plant until May. No doubt there are still cold and wet days to come, helped on by the Mistral, but sun and warmth are already predominant. Several of my clematises have buds on them about to open and two of my red roses in the front already have their first blooms. Gaps in the flowers at the back have almost all been filled and it's all looking promising.

Friend Steve and I wrapped up the English conversation classes for a month on Tuesday: we'll restart at the end of the month and carry on until mid-June before stopping for the summer. The group kindly treated us and Steve's wife Jo to dinner at the local Tilleuls restaurant the following Thursday and it turned out to be a very enjoyable evening with all of us together and good food and wine. «Les anglophones» as Steve and I refer to them have become a social group as well as an English class, which I find doubly rewarding. The group's confidence with English and their fluency is improving all the time which has thrown the spotlight on pronunciation; misprononced English spoken quickly is more difficult for Steve and I to decipher than the same spoken slowly. Sounding «h»s is a well known problem for the French but English vowel sounds, the dipthongs, need a lot of work too. I've bought a dictaphone device so that we can record and play back what the mispronunciations. We haven't used it yet but plan to do so when we restart.

The local growers of strawberries and asparagus have put up their roadside stalls, resulting in a halving of the price. That should mean a reasonably priced supply of strawberries through until July, although the asparagus won't last that long. The orchard trees are still mostly in full flower although some, probably the almond trees, have been dropping their petals. Anyway the local fruit season has started so I will be able to indulge my addiction to fruit for the next few months.

Some months ago I bought a bottle of port, simply because it was discounted and cheap, and thought I'd use it for cooking. Then I couldn't think what to cook with it. However I recently noticed tins of pork cooked with prunes in the local supermarket and thought pork and prunes might work with port. I cooked it yesterday and everybody thought it was good so I'll do it again a couple of times until I use up the port. I can't remember ever having meat with prunes in England but the French cook veal with prunes also and that works well too.