Musings On Government

Musings On Government

I'm just back from a week in England again ; my mother and « kids » all OK. The weather wasn't bad but I didn't get out much except to shop and so had my customary overdose of television while there. News and discussion/documentary programmes were dominated by the Euro and border control, which led me to musing about government more generally. (The useful shopping I did for here consisted of buying jars of mincemeat for Jo to make mince pies, Father Christmas hats and some elegant red lanterns; all for our carol singing session here in December.)

The border control debate centred of course on Teresa May's spat with her civil servants. The spat was of little interest to me; she was “courageous” in Yes Minister terms to take on a very senior member of her Ministry but will no doubt escape with just a few feathers missing even if Brodie Clark wins his case in court. He, incidentally, wrote an article in The Times declaring that border controls were extremely efficient, which surprised me as they show all the symptoms of a buggar's muddle. I can't see how the issues involved can be anything other than extremely complex, enough so to defeat a few geniuses let alone a bunch of civil servants.

Populist concerns always arise when jobs are scarce and services stretched but, although they have to be addressed by politicians who want to stay in power, are generally uninformed or based on bigotry. Significant influxes of immigrants in a short time and security are the issues I muse about.

On the one hand it seems to me that a lack of any discernible immigration policy is at the heart of the problem. There surely has to be some control of immigrant numbers over unit time, if levels of service to the community are to be maintained. I find it difficult to envisage that intra-European migration, which cannot be suppressed, is a problem. There may be temporary imbalances from time to time but the Common Market was designed to allow labour flows to employment areas and, currently, if anywhere is experiencing an overload it can only be Germany. The only danger of a significant overload would be from a country where an outbreak of civil war or some other catastrophe caused large numbers to emigrate from that country (if they could find the means). Such cases shouldn't be difficult to identify although sharing the burden with other stable countries could be problematic.

The question of security strikes me as much more difficult. Any putative Albanian gangster isn't going to come directly to the UK; he will come via Ireland or Italy. That means either iron security for incomers from all destinations, and hence long queues at all border points, or an EU-wide immigration policy. A UK policy alone could not be effective; which rather knocks my idea of a need for a UK policy on its head. Incidentally, the HSE aspect of queues at border points hadn't occurred to me before the current brouhaha. My current movements tend to be between Avignon and Southampton airports and a queue of more than 6 people at Avignon airport would probably merit newspaper headlines.

Of course there are many other aspects to immigration but the idea of the need for a policy that would have to be EU-wide was the one that stuck in my head. It implies a degree of integration with other EU members that does not yet exist and may never do so; certainly it won't happen tomorrow.

The Euro debate has similar implications. I loved the spat that occurred when David Cameron exhorted the Germans to get their act together because the Euro was adversely affecting the UK economy and various Germans ripostes to Cameron to either join the Euro or shut up. I happen to believe that the decision for the UK not to join the Euro (a feather in the cap of Prudence, of all people) was correct. I believe that for all the reasons we are seeing now. Every currency in the world except the Euro has a fiscal system behind it. All the Euro has is a set of rules that were always going to be bent and, indeed, were already being so from its very inception. Whatever the outcome of the present shenanigans I can't see the Euro surviving unless the ECB takes on the full role of a central bank. If it somehow survives the present crisis it will continue to be open to speculative attacks that will cause mayhem unless the Euro is backed by a proper central bank. Whether the Germans like it or not they will have to suck on that one, even if they have to remain the principal contributor to its funds. It's the price of the political dream and they will have to pay most of it.

The most serious aspect of this, to me, is that the future of democracy in Europe is bound in with this issue and that it reinforces the thought that banks rather than politicians are now running western countries. If banks create situations that entail politicians making unelectable policies, who governs? Not only do economies fail but democracy itself does. If Merkel doesn't force the ECB to take on a full central bank role, the Euro fails. If she does, she may well fail at the next elections. France is likely to have a new government next summer, to add to the changes in Greece and Italy. All these changes of government, with the possible exception of France, are likely to be to the right. A military coup is already a possibility in Greece. The very serious underlying question is: if financial institutions hold all the real power now, how do democrats get it back from them? That, I suspect, requires not “simply” an EU-wide policy but a global one.