Brexit: Xenophobia Loses

Brexit: Either Way, Xenophobia Loses

“Brexit means Brexit”, the UK's next prime minister, Theresa May, has said. She has to be believed because even if she calls a general election, as seems likely, she would be favourite to win it. The open question still is what kind of trade agreement she can negotiate with the EU.

I've been puzzling over what possible solution there can be to what seems to me an unresolvable conflict. The UK undoubtedly voted for close control of its borders; warnings of severe economic problems must have been dismissed as scaremongering by Leave voters and yet the adverse effects can already be seen and more are certain to come. Optimists may see the hits on the value of the pound and the stock markets as temporary setbacks but the right to service euro currency transactions has already been taken from the City and, just the other day, the Lush cosmetics company, which employs 1400 staff in the UK, announced an end to UK recruitment and that it was moving its main operation to Germany. There can only be more of that to come as as other companies that have their centre for European operations in the UK do the same; commercially it's the only move that makes sense.

So the UK urgently needs a good trade agreement with the EU but…………..every other trade agreement the EU has with non-European governments includes clauses that enforce open borders and acceptance of EU legislation as regards trade. Angela Merkel herself has said that that position cannot be compromised. So Theresa May has the following dilemma to resolve. Negotiate a good trade agreement and antagonise all those who voted for close border control or ditch a trade agreement and condemn the UK to an economic recession that could last decades. How can that possibly be resolved?

Either of those solutions can only split even further a country already in conflict wth itself. I've been able to think of only one possible fudge, just possible because all politicians love fudges that get them out of a hole and can be interpreted as triumphs or disasters (“those two impostors”, Kipling) at will. The EU itself could bail the UK out, even if it doesn't feel like doing so. The idea of immigration quotas has already been discussed within the EU with respect to settlement of Syrian refugees and immigration control is an urgent issue within all EU countries. So suppose the EU sticks with its open borders policy (it can't realistically do anythng else) but allows quotas to be set on the number of immigrants allowed per year, as a sop to cool down the immigration debate within the EU? I've no real idea what the numbers would be but they would have to be in the hundreds of thousands for a country such as the UK. Theresa May could then negotiate a quota as part of a trade agreement and claim she had got back control of the UK's borders: a total fudge of course but that's politics and I can't see any other way out.

So the UK will have had it's triumph of jingoism over serious thought and its tantrum over the EU but, as ever, reality strikes back. Xenophobia cannot win because the UK can't afford it.