Politics

Politics In France

The presidential primaries are now almost done and the voters know pretty well the choices they will have later in the year, subject to any last minute changes. A friend of mine, a retired professor of French literature, has already made his choice; he is not going to vote. The change he wants to see is a count of deliberately spoiled votes as against those accidentally spoiled. Why (to both points)?. He says he won't vote because the choice is between fraudsters and fantasisers and he doesn't want to vote for either. Anyone in the UK recognise that scenario? And he wants deliberately spoiled votes counted separately because that would provide a gauge of the electorate's disaffection with politicians of the day.

I happen to believe absolutely in democracy as (Churchill's words) “the least bad form of government” but have always acknowledged a glaring weakness. It encourages short-termism, since governments focus on whatever will show a positive effect before the next election, and neglect essentials such as maintenance of infrastructure, unless and to the extent that job creation demands it. My friend has highlighted another to me. What if all the possibilities offered for election are all unacceptable (to reasonable people); do you vote for the least undesirable or not vote at all? The point could have ramifications in the UK.

And In The UK

Among the vapid phrases now abundant in UK politics is “the will of the people” (37% of the electorate to be precise) as an excuse for politicians not following their formerly considered and stated beliefs. So Brexit is going to happen. It can't have escaped any politician's notice that what will also happen, in three year time, is a general election. As things stand the UK will then have left the EU and be looking for trade agreements with a large number of countries and better ones alone than it could obtain as part of a 28 nation block. A former governor of the Bank of England has been quoted as saying that he has never known an international trade agreement take less than 5-7 years, so a single year doesn't look too promising. So what benefits from leaving the EU, assuming there are any, will be visible in 2020? I can't see any, persisting chimeras, hopes and wish fulfilment aside, but I can see various forms of chaos. I can also see Brexit being a major issue in the election and, given our blame culture, a lot of blame being passed around. Who to blame? Those who voted Leave are not going to blame themselves (Heaven forbid!) so they will have to blame the government handling of Brexit or the referendum. The Conservative defence will be that you may not like the situation now but we are the best party to get you out of it and it would be harmful to interrupt negotiations.  Trust those that created the mess to clear it up.  I can't see that attracting a lot of votes. Those who voted Remain are certainly not going to feel supportive of the government. So what could save the Conservative party from a potential landslide defeat? The only thing I can think of is Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party, well qualified to perform a “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” act. So what has persuaded the majority of Conservative MPs to vote as they have? Surely not a death wish? They must be betting on Jeremy.