The EU Referendum Again

The EU Referendum Again

“Curioser and curioser, said Alice”. So is the EU referendum just part of an Alice in Wonderland scenario? Two points have been brought to my attention since my last posting, the first in an article in The Economist and the second in an interview with Lord Astor.

The Economist article points out some details in the trading agreement made between Norway and the EU. Many in the Leave campaign are pointing to Norway as an example of a sound economy in Europe outside the EU and can correctly do so if one ignores huge differences between the economies of Norway and the UK. It turns out that Norway was offered the trade agreement it has only on the condition that it adopted the rules on free movement of labour enshrined in the EU. There can be little doubt that any trade agreement between the EU and the UK, which both sides agree the UK would have to have, would be offered on anything but at least the same terms. So all the trumpeting by the Leave campaign on securing our borders and stopping immigrants from the EU would come to nothing. The immigration situation would remain as it is now; even if we vote to leave we'd have no greater control of our borders than we do now.

Lord Astor has pointed out that under UK law the result of a referendum can only be advisory; it doesn't automatcially become law even if the Prime Minister accepts the result as binding. The UK legislation that binds us to the EU would first have to be repealed through Parliament and there seems to be little prospect that a majority of MPs of all parties would vote to repeal it. So we could have the situation that the referendum results in a vote for Brexit but a majority of MPs refuse to endorse it. Which would leave us in exactly the same situation as we were before the referendum.

Of course Cameron could put a three-line whip on votes for repeal of the legislation, though even that might not be enough. On the other hand, a Brexit result has been widely assumed as the end for Cameron as Prime Minister. He has allowed MPs a free hand on the referendum so he could quite reasonably allow them a free hand on the legislation that has to be repealed, thus possibly saving his job. Any bets on that?

I think I'll go back to reading Alice in Wonderland.