The EU Referendum

The EU Referendum

I've now registered to vote in the EU referendum and, as I have intimated before, will vote (by proxy) to remain. Apart from my obvious self-interest I think there are compelling reasons to do so, in spite of the poor current state of the EU. And self-interest is the least of the reasons; the issue is too important for that.

The Prime Minister has said that he will regard the result of the referendum as binding. It will also be irreversible in the forseeable future and so, whichever way we vote, we will be voting not just for ourselves but for our children and our children's children.

This is my nightmare scenario. The UK opts out. Very few Europeans are happy with the EU at the moment, particularly with the Commission, and so the inhabitants of several other countries, Denmark and Sweden certainly, Germany possibly, Austria and many other probably will then demand their own referendum. To prevent this happening, and the looming break-up of the EU, the EU will then undertake the much needed major reforms that so many want. There will be panic, no treaties will any longer be sacred and no reforms, however radical, ruled out. The budget will certainly be cut and, quite probably, power will be removed from the Commission and given to the European Parliament. The EU will then become more democratic, much more realistic in its legislature and be the large trading block that the UK has always wanted to be part of. Except that the UK will be on the outside and unable to get in again.

This would exacerbate and compound the disadvantages I see in leaving. Our heirs would thus find themselves not only economically isolated but part of a lone voice in the wilderness more generally, with no “muscle” to back any of the initiatives it would like to take. The UK might well say “we told you so and you wouldn't listen” but nobody then will be listening to the UK either. I believe that, however the UK votes, the reforms will be coming, and soon; I can't see any other future for the EU and don't believe the political powers in Europe will let it die. And I would much rather the UK could have a strong hand in directing them than simply be an outside observer.

What appals me when my country, for the UK is still my country, faces such a momentous decision is the quality of the debate and the information made available. I find Cameron no more than a blundering and blustering idiot. Farage has never been anything else, in my view. And I regard Boris Johnson's campaign as a supreme exercise in cynicism. As a former Editor of The Economist he must well understand the disadvantageous economic consequences of a Brexit. All the major financial bodies have told him what he must already know, what most of the major employers in the UK, who are not British and want above all to to be part of a large trading block, have said. He must know that trumpeting the cost of EU membership and the supposed savings to spend on other things is all smoke and mirrors. So I can only conclude that his evident desire to supplant Cameron, which he sees as his next job, is his only motive; pure cynicism. Corbyn has been an irrelevance. And the debate itself seems to be being conducted on a platform of xenophobia, thinly disguised racism and personal insults, belying its extreme importance.

Cameron hasn't helped with his aimless and confused campaign and neither has the EU itself, its arrogant Commission seemingly above PR or even the dissemination of positive facts. And, crucially, the EU was found wanting over the immigration crisis, always a thorny, misunderstood and complex issue, ideal for tabloid sensationalism. The UK already potentially has a large measure of control of its borders and its failure to exercise it is mostly due to an understaffed, underfunded and disillusioned Border Agency; Brexit won't change that, merely exacerbate the problem. Immigration as a political football, subject of local concern and generator of tabloid headlines is here to stay.  The same goes for benefits.  It has needed the Lib Dems to point out that the UK is in a strong positon within the EU and, indeed, owes much of its position slightly above the current global economic turmoil precisely to its membership of the EU. Appeals to patriotism, to make Britain great again, master of its destiny, etc, always strike me as “the last refuge of a scoundrel”. Britain is great, as great as it will ever be since Empire days, very largely a humane, tolerant, hard-working and beautiful country that has very many reasons to be proud of itself and its position in the world (it's just a pity about the weather.) But it will never again be a global economic powerhouse or major global influence outside of a power bloc. It will be even greater in the EU and we should stay there.